Long Island Watch Talks Tariffs

[BBK357]

My guess is these tariffs are going to crush the micro / "impulse buy" watch business.

The guy who wants a $16K Rolex today will likely buy a $21K Rolex tomorrow.

I'm fairly happy with my current watch collection and there isn't really anything I'm going to kick myself for not buying pre-tariff. I am, however, going to buy the Macbook my daughter asked for as a graduation present right now.

Oh crap. We definitely need to make a similar purchase before summer's end. Waiting to ask the college/engineering department which is preferred based on the software they use. And waiting for the school to be chosen (UCLA, Berkeley, Mines, Purdue ???).

My kid decided on Trinity in Dublin, Ireland. I'm watching the Euro versus USD exchange rate and not super pleased right now.

Looks beautiful. I have very distant relatives in Cork. Enjoy visiting.

My wife and daughter are heading to Ireland tomorrow for a deeper tour and visits with students from my area. It seems odd to say they are visiting Ireland for a long weekend, but I expect it will become the norm over the next 4 years.

My niece married a boy from Dublin, so we have in-law relations in the city, but I welcome any other connections the Dub has to offer. Boston to Dublin is close, but also pretty far.

As an aside, I proud of her for wanting to go to school so far from home. Proud, but nervous- so normal parent emotions.

Can I ask what made him choose/you to allow him to go to Dublin for school? I have never heard of a person from the US choose a college in Ireland.

[Ryeguy]

My guess is these tariffs are going to crush the micro / "impulse buy" watch business.

The guy who wants a $16K Rolex today will likely buy a $21K Rolex tomorrow.

I'm fairly happy with my current watch collection and there isn't really anything I'm going to kick myself for not buying pre-tariff. I am, however, going to buy the Macbook my daughter asked for as a graduation present right now.

Oh crap. We definitely need to make a similar purchase before summer's end. Waiting to ask the college/engineering department which is preferred based on the software they use. And waiting for the school to be chosen (UCLA, Berkeley, Mines, Purdue ???).

My kid decided on Trinity in Dublin, Ireland. I'm watching the Euro versus USD exchange rate and not super pleased right now.

Looks beautiful. I have very distant relatives in Cork. Enjoy visiting.

My wife and daughter are heading to Ireland tomorrow for a deeper tour and visits with students from my area. It seems odd to say they are visiting Ireland for a long weekend, but I expect it will become the norm over the next 4 years.

My niece married a boy from Dublin, so we have in-law relations in the city, but I welcome any other connections the Dub has to offer. Boston to Dublin is close, but also pretty far.

As an aside, I proud of her for wanting to go to school so far from home. Proud, but nervous- so normal parent emotions.

Can I ask what made him choose/you to allow him to go to Dublin for school? I have never heard of a person from the US choose a college in Ireland.

It is my daughter who is going.

I guess it is a bit unusual, but I’m learning it is less so than I originally thought. My wife and daughter are actually going to meet with a girl at Trinity who graduated from our (public) high school a couple of years ahead of Stella.

My daughter actually applied to a few schools in Europe and the UK. She selected Trinity because of its global ranking (top 50 university in the world) and it is in the city center, which is the environment she was looking for.

As a parent, we liked Trinity because:
1) Dublin (and Ireland in general) is very safe.
2) University costs are relatively affordable (about $20k per year tuition - similar to our state university and less than the cost of private colleges we looked at)
3) She will have an EU student visa and transact using Euro’s which will make further travel a bit easier (relative to a UK visa and having to go from the USD to the Pound, then the Euro)
4) She’ll get a good education and a really cool experience (which hopefully helps her with a future job)

We are lucky in that we do have some personal connections in Dublin who can step in to help if Stella has any issues. Plus, Dublin is a direct flight from Boston, so travel isn’t super complicated.

FWIW, many European schools are eligible for US federal student loans, so from that aspect it isn’t much different than any other school.

We are still learning some unexpected things, such as within 90 days of landing in Ireland the student has to return to immigration and show that they have €10,000 in an Irish bank. Ireland wants to know that you have the means to survive prior to issuing you the visa.

[HapaHapa]

My guess is these tariffs are going to crush the micro / "impulse buy" watch business.

The guy who wants a $16K Rolex today will likely buy a $21K Rolex tomorrow.

I'm fairly happy with my current watch collection and there isn't really anything I'm going to kick myself for not buying pre-tariff. I am, however, going to buy the Macbook my daughter asked for as a graduation present right now.

Oh crap. We definitely need to make a similar purchase before summer's end. Waiting to ask the college/engineering department which is preferred based on the software they use. And waiting for the school to be chosen (UCLA, Berkeley, Mines, Purdue ???).

My kid decided on Trinity in Dublin, Ireland. I'm watching the Euro versus USD exchange rate and not super pleased right now.

Looks beautiful. I have very distant relatives in Cork. Enjoy visiting.

My wife and daughter are heading to Ireland tomorrow for a deeper tour and visits with students from my area. It seems odd to say they are visiting Ireland for a long weekend, but I expect it will become the norm over the next 4 years.

My niece married a boy from Dublin, so we have in-law relations in the city, but I welcome any other connections the Dub has to offer. Boston to Dublin is close, but also pretty far.

As an aside, I proud of her for wanting to go to school so far from home. Proud, but nervous- so normal parent emotions.

Can I ask what made him choose/you to allow him to go to Dublin for school? I have never heard of a person from the US choose a college in Ireland.

It is my daughter who is going.

I guess it is a bit unusual, but I’m learning it is less so than I originally thought. My wife and daughter are actually going to meet with a girl at Trinity who graduated from our (public) high school a couple of years ahead of Stella.

My daughter actually applied to a few schools in Europe and the UK. She selected Trinity because of its global ranking (top 50 university in the world) and it is in the city center, which is the environment she was looking for.

As a parent, we liked Trinity because:
1) Dublin (and Ireland in general) is very safe.
2) University costs are relatively affordable (about $20k per year tuition - similar to our state university and less than the cost of private colleges we looked at)
3) She will have an EU student visa and transact using Euro’s which will make further travel a bit easier (relative to a UK visa and having to go from the USD to the Pound, then the Euro)
4) She’ll get a good education and a really cool experience (which hopefully helps her with a future job)

We are lucky in that we do have some personal connections in Dublin who can step in to help if Stella has any issues. Plus, Dublin is a direct flight from Boston, so travel isn’t super complicated.

FWIW, many European schools are eligible for US federal student loans, so from that aspect it isn’t much different than any other school.

We are still learning some unexpected things, such as within 90 days of landing in Ireland the student has to return to immigration and show that they have €10,000 in an Irish bank. Ireland wants to know that you have the means to survive prior to issuing you the visa.

Win-win-win. A great resume builder, a great experience, and yes $20k tuition is very reasonable.

[Ryeguy]

My guess is these tariffs are going to crush the micro / "impulse buy" watch business.

The guy who wants a $16K Rolex today will likely buy a $21K Rolex tomorrow.

I'm fairly happy with my current watch collection and there isn't really anything I'm going to kick myself for not buying pre-tariff. I am, however, going to buy the Macbook my daughter asked for as a graduation present right now.

Oh crap. We definitely need to make a similar purchase before summer's end. Waiting to ask the college/engineering department which is preferred based on the software they use. And waiting for the school to be chosen (UCLA, Berkeley, Mines, Purdue ???).

My kid decided on Trinity in Dublin, Ireland. I'm watching the Euro versus USD exchange rate and not super pleased right now.

Looks beautiful. I have very distant relatives in Cork. Enjoy visiting.

My wife and daughter are heading to Ireland tomorrow for a deeper tour and visits with students from my area. It seems odd to say they are visiting Ireland for a long weekend, but I expect it will become the norm over the next 4 years.

My niece married a boy from Dublin, so we have in-law relations in the city, but I welcome any other connections the Dub has to offer. Boston to Dublin is close, but also pretty far.

As an aside, I proud of her for wanting to go to school so far from home. Proud, but nervous- so normal parent emotions.

Can I ask what made him choose/you to allow him to go to Dublin for school? I have never heard of a person from the US choose a college in Ireland.

It is my daughter who is going.

I guess it is a bit unusual, but I’m learning it is less so than I originally thought. My wife and daughter are actually going to meet with a girl at Trinity who graduated from our (public) high school a couple of years ahead of Stella.

My daughter actually applied to a few schools in Europe and the UK. She selected Trinity because of its global ranking (top 50 university in the world) and it is in the city center, which is the environment she was looking for.

As a parent, we liked Trinity because:
1) Dublin (and Ireland in general) is very safe.
2) University costs are relatively affordable (about $20k per year tuition - similar to our state university and less than the cost of private colleges we looked at)
3) She will have an EU student visa and transact using Euro’s which will make further travel a bit easier (relative to a UK visa and having to go from the USD to the Pound, then the Euro)
4) She’ll get a good education and a really cool experience (which hopefully helps her with a future job)

We are lucky in that we do have some personal connections in Dublin who can step in to help if Stella has any issues. Plus, Dublin is a direct flight from Boston, so travel isn’t super complicated.

FWIW, many European schools are eligible for US federal student loans, so from that aspect it isn’t much different than any other school.

We are still learning some unexpected things, such as within 90 days of landing in Ireland the student has to return to immigration and show that they have €10,000 in an Irish bank. Ireland wants to know that you have the means to survive prior to issuing you the visa.

Win-win-win. A great resume builder, a great experience, and yes $20k tuition is very reasonable.

To further derail this tariff thread, a couple really cool things we learned about Trinity are:
1) they keep the tuition rate steady for your years there. It will not change between her freshman and senior year by more than 2%.

2) they encourage Juniors to spend a year “abroad” and you pay Trinity tuition wherever you go. We met an American girl who spent her “year abroad” going to Notre Dame University (tuition $67,000) and she only paid Trinity tuition.

[mattcantwin]

To further derail this tariff thread, a couple really cool things we learned about Trinity are:
1) they keep the tuition rate steady for your years there. It will not change between her freshman and senior year by more than 2%.

2) they encourage Juniors to spend a year “abroad” and you pay Trinity tuition wherever you go. We met an American girl who spent her “year abroad” going to Notre Dame University (tuition $67,000) and she only paid Trinity tuition.

That's an impressive policy and year abroad option.

[CGSshorty]

We need Michael Kobold to get those CNC machines back from whomever bought them at auction.

[Selym]

We need Michael Kobold to get those CNC machines back from whomever bought them at auction.

Does the US even build fire trucks anymore?

[demer03]

…are you saying I should just buy the Tudor Black Bay 58 I was eyeballing at the shop in Dublin, lol?

[hoppyjr]

…are you saying I should just buy the Tudor Black Bay 58 I was eyeballing at the shop in Dublin, lol?

Yes. Toss the box and wear it home.

[Jeep99dad]

[AranaWhite]

Stowa strategy, I like it.

My guess is these tariffs are going to crush the micro / "impulse buy" watch business.

The guy who wants a $16K Rolex today will likely buy a $21K Rolex tomorrow.

I'm fairly happy with my current watch collection and there isn't really anything I'm going to kick myself for not buying pre-tariff. I am, however, going to buy the Macbook my daughter asked for as a graduation present right now.

Oh crap. We definitely need to make a similar purchase before summer's end. Waiting to ask the college/engineering department which is preferred based on the software they use. And waiting for the school to be chosen (UCLA, Berkeley, Mines, Purdue ???).

My kid decided on Trinity in Dublin, Ireland. I'm watching the Euro versus USD exchange rate and not super pleased right now.

Congratulations Chris and Eric, that's exciting, solid foundations.

[DenverBuff]

I got the same email. As one of my major corporate clients told me last week, "We're business people. Tell us what the rules are and we'll adjust".

I feel bad for Marc. He's a good guy and a good businessman. But his business is (mostly) reselling watches and accessories made in China. So yeah, there's a significant risk imbedded into his business model. If you're a small business whose lifeline is tied almost exclusively to Chinese suppliers . . . yeah, there's a ton he can't control. And he prices accordingly.

I'm sure he'll be fine as this plays out.

[River Rat]

What worries me after the stock market took a big dump glad, I got no money in that crap. My mom and dad lived through the great depression it started with the crash of the stock market people lost everything some jumped out of skyscrapers to their death. Remember my mom never throwing anything away like most of the greatest generation and when she was eating, she always had a happy face due to not eating enough because the family did not have enough money to buy food. I have lived through recessions before but never a great depression just hope we are not heading for one and watches will be the last thing we think about if it goes that direction.

[hoppyjr]

That won’t last, just need to be patient

I think you’re correct. There have already been concessions from other countries and more will surely follow. As the largest consumer, the USA is important to all, so they will eventually come to see why truly free trade is necessary.

In the meantime, I’ll pick up a new MacBook and I still plan to get that upcoming titanium CWC. Other than those, I’m pretty set.

[raf42]

That won’t last, just need to be patient

I think you’re correct. There have already been concessions from other countries and more will surely follow. As the largest consumer, the USA is important to all, so they will eventually come to see why truly free trade is necessary.

In the meantime, I’ll pick up a new MacBook and I still plan to get that upcoming titanium CWC. Other than those, I’m pretty set.

I just upgraded to a Macbook Air (15", comes in 13" too). Light, thin, great screen, fast. Quite awesome and not terribly expensive. Check them out if you have not already.

While freeer trade may come due to all this, hard to see what countries like Switzerland (which I mentioned and obviously important for a number of watches) can do since they already had almost no trade restrictions with us yet now have a 31% US tariff against them. Not like Rolex (as an example) can move their manufacturing here. Maybe I don't understand.

[Steelman]

This is long overdue.

Tariffs aren’t the goal…they’re a tool

The goals are:
We need to manufacture our own products
We need to manufacture our own medications
We need to manufacture our own infrastructure
We need to produce our own energy
We need fair trade policies that benefit our businesses

It will hurt in the short run, but will help us in the long run. Our parents and grandparents had more significant sacrifices; nobody is putting a gun in our hands and making us fight a war. We’ll get through it. Never bet against America.

[hoppyjr]

That won’t last, just need to be patient

I think you’re correct. There have already been concessions from other countries and more will surely follow. As the largest consumer, the USA is important to all, so they will eventually come to see why truly free trade is necessary.

In the meantime, I’ll pick up a new MacBook and I still plan to get that upcoming titanium CWC. Other than those, I’m pretty set.

I just upgraded to a Macbook Air (15", comes in 13" too). Light, thin, great screen, fast. Quite awesome and not terribly expensive. Check them out if you have not already.

15” MacBook Air is my plan too. Debating on the last generation or the one before. Good deals abound. I’m currently working with a basic 12” MacBook, circa 2012 IIIRC. A later iMac too at home.

[demer03]

This is long overdue.

Tariffs aren’t the goal…they’re a tool

The goals are:
We need to manufacture our own products
We need to manufacture our own medications
We need to manufacture our own infrastructure
We need to produce our own energy
We need fair trade policies that benefit our businesses

It will hurt in the short run, but will help us in the long run. Our parents and grandparents had more significant sacrifices; nobody is putting a gun in our hands and making us fight a war. We’ll get through it. Never bet against America.

Yes to all of this

[River Rat]

9.6 trillion dollars the U.S. stock market lost. Remember someone in charge with this idea how many times he went bankrupt can’t even run his own businesses.

[Ryeguy]

9.6 trillion dollars the U.S. stock market lost. Remember someone in charge with this idea how many times he went bankrupt can’t even run his own businesses.

You make an interesting point and highlight what I see as the main problem - the US government cannot file for bankruptcy.

The US government is currently borrowing money to pay for all the expenses we cannot afford from our existing tax revenue (our government’s source of income).

The US government is promising our lenders that if they lend us money, we will give them back X number of little green pieces of paper, which we print. We don’t promise a value to this paper, just a number of units.

Right now, about 20% of our income (total tax revenue) goes to paying only the interest on our debt.

If this was a business, you probably would go bankrupt to lose your existing debt and restructure the business to resume profitable operations, but again, the government cannot claim bankruptcy.

The way I see it is we have the following options:

1) do nothing (as previously done), continue normal operations and ignore the situation until our debt load becomes so high that no one will lend us money and the dollar becomes valueless as a currency. This will be the end of the USA as a country.

2) significantly cut spending so the income you do make (tax revenue) equals your spending and you can stop borrowing money.

3) increase your income through higher taxes and tariffs so you can stop borrowing money.

What I see going on is a combination of #2 and #3 - cutting costs (DOGE) and increasing revenue (tariffs).

Honestly, I think any administration needed to do this in some way. We (the government) cannot continue to operate like a guy who is already swimming in debt who takes out new credit cards to buy a new Rolex.

[hoppyjr]

9.6 trillion dollars the U.S. stock market lost. Remember someone in charge with this idea how many times he went bankrupt can’t even run his own businesses.

The money isn’t “lost” unless someone went to sell stocks, and even then they only lost if they paid a price higher than the price at time of sale. Stocks go up, stocks go down, it happens. There are no guarantees in investments, or in life.

Some people panic because they fear what they don’t understand or react because they don’t like the man in charge.

What we absolutely know for sure is what our leadership has done in the past, both republican and democrat, hasn’t worked.

[jswing]

9.6 trillion dollars the U.S. stock market lost. Remember someone in charge with this idea how many times he went bankrupt can’t even run his own businesses.

You make an interesting point and highlight what I see as the main problem - the US government cannot file for bankruptcy.

The US government is currently borrowing money to pay for all the expenses we cannot afford from our existing tax revenue (our government’s source of income).

The US government is promising our lenders that if they lend us money, we will give them back X number of little green pieces of paper, which we print. We don’t promise a value to this paper, just a number of units.

Right now, about 20% of our income (total tax revenue) goes to paying only the interest on our debt.

If this was a business, you probably would go bankrupt to lose your existing debt and restructure the business to resume profitable operations, but again, the government cannot claim bankruptcy.

The way I see it is we have the following options:

1) do nothing (as previously done), continue normal operations and ignore the situation until our debt load becomes so high that no one will lend us money and the dollar becomes valueless as a currency. This will be the end of the USA as a country.

2) significantly cut spending so the income you do make (tax revenue) equals your spending and you can stop borrowing money.

3) increase your income through higher taxes and tariffs so you can stop borrowing money.

What I see going on is a combination of #2 and #3 - cutting costs (DOGE) and increasing revenue (tariffs).

Honestly, I think any administration needed to do this in some way. We (the government) cannot continue to operate like a guy who is already swimming in debt who takes out new credit cards to buy a new Rolex.

I agree with this, I'd just like to see a more targeted approach. Switzerland is a good example. They barely apply tariffs to US goods. The formula used was more based on trade deficit than tariffs, and a country as small as Switzerland will always operate at a trade deficit with the US. I don't see how tariffs will meet any of the intended goals in this case. I'm sure there are other examples where the tariffs don't make sense, and others where they do. I do hope it's a short term measure.

[Ryeguy]

9.6 trillion dollars the U.S. stock market lost. Remember someone in charge with this idea how many times he went bankrupt can’t even run his own businesses.

The money isn’t “lost” unless someone went to sell stocks, and even then they only lost if they paid a price higher than the price at time of sale. Stocks go up, stocks go down, it happens. There are no guarantees in investments, or in life.

Some people panic because they fear what they don’t understand or react because they don’t like the man in charge.

What we absolutely know for sure is what our leadership has done in the past, both republican and democrat, hasn’t worked.

FWIW, I think Ross Perot (albeit crazy) wasn’t wrong back in 1992.

For the past 30+ years the US businesses have been outsourcing manufacturing and our workforce.

While doing this might look good for short term gains in the stock market (reducing the cost of goods produced), it really isn’t sustainable for a country.

There is a reason I spend most of my time working with DoD suppliers. ITAR protects this industry from foreign competition.

[Ryeguy]

9.6 trillion dollars the U.S. stock market lost. Remember someone in charge with this idea how many times he went bankrupt can’t even run his own businesses.

You make an interesting point and highlight what I see as the main problem - the US government cannot file for bankruptcy.

The US government is currently borrowing money to pay for all the expenses we cannot afford from our existing tax revenue (our government’s source of income).

The US government is promising our lenders that if they lend us money, we will give them back X number of little green pieces of paper, which we print. We don’t promise a value to this paper, just a number of units.

Right now, about 20% of our income (total tax revenue) goes to paying only the interest on our debt.

If this was a business, you probably would go bankrupt to lose your existing debt and restructure the business to resume profitable operations, but again, the government cannot claim bankruptcy.

The way I see it is we have the following options:

1) do nothing (as previously done), continue normal operations and ignore the situation until our debt load becomes so high that no one will lend us money and the dollar becomes valueless as a currency. This will be the end of the USA as a country.

2) significantly cut spending so the income you do make (tax revenue) equals your spending and you can stop borrowing money.

3) increase your income through higher taxes and tariffs so you can stop borrowing money.

What I see going on is a combination of #2 and #3 - cutting costs (DOGE) and increasing revenue (tariffs).

Honestly, I think any administration needed to do this in some way. We (the government) cannot continue to operate like a guy who is already swimming in debt who takes out new credit cards to buy a new Rolex.

I agree with this, I'd just like to see a more targeted approach. Switzerland is a good example. They barely apply tariffs to US goods. The formula used was more based on trade deficit than tariffs, and a country as small as Switzerland will always operate at a trade deficit with the US. I don't see how tariffs will meet any of the intended goals in this case. I'm sure there are other examples where the tariffs don't make sense, and others where they do. I do hope it's a short term measure.

Yes, Switzerland doesn’t make too much sense, I agree.

I also wish we were trying to turn the ship a bit less aggressively. Maybe focus on cost cutting first, then focus on imposing targeted tariffs.

My guess is there is a sense of urgency within the administration around the mid term elections. The goal (my guess) is to deal with some short term pain now, but have meaningful positive results within 12 - 18 months.

It is a hell of a gamble, and for the sake of the country, I hope they are right.

[River Rat]

What about the island that they put tariffs on there no people on it just penguins guess they can pay with fish.