State of the Market

[goaliechris]

I have been itching to buy a watch lately. and I have always had several grails that were a little out reach or the timing wasn’t right. At 2018 prices, I would be good to go to finally get that 15400 (now 15500) or something like it. Now in 2021-2? No f’in chance. I know it’s been discussed ad nauseum but this market is absolutely insane for certain pieces. I am assuming at some point it cannot continue but will prices ever backslide? Or will prices just hold on Rolex and AP(as examples)?


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[hoppyjr]

That’s the big question for sure.

I’ve seriously considered selling the OP or 14060 to take advantage of the hot market, but I haven’t listed yet because I worry about leaving money on the table.

It’s crazy.

[ncstate1201]

That’s the big question for sure.

I’ve seriously considered selling the OP or 14060 to take advantage of the hot market, but I haven’t listed yet because I worry about leaving money on the table.

It’s crazy.

Or we all have that pain point that is not just leaving money on the table but when you part with one you miss and have to buy it back at a premium

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[hoppyjr]

That’s the big question for sure.

I’ve seriously considered selling the OP or 14060 to take advantage of the hot market, but I haven’t listed yet because I worry about leaving money on the table.

It’s crazy.

Or we all have that pain point that is not just leaving money on the table but when you part with one you miss and have to buy it back at a premium

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Also true

[sierra11b]

That’s the big question for sure.

I’ve seriously considered selling the OP or 14060 to take advantage of the hot market, but I haven’t listed yet because I worry about leaving money on the table.

It’s crazy.

Or we all have that pain point that is not just leaving money on the table but when you part with one you miss and have to buy it back at a premium

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Also true

Pretty much. Went from multiple Rolex to rocking an alpinist in a couple years. Market is a bitch

[Chocodove]

Turquoise OP41's are now $35k grey. I think that tells you all you need to know.

[JBZ]

Unless/until the Rolex/AP/PP supply chain loosens up and ADs and boutiques have stock to sell, I don't see the gray market prices on the new pieces going down at all.

What blows me away when it comes to Rolex are the prices on all of the five digit models (and even some older six digit models). Given the number out there, they're commanding prices that just seem way too high. A good condition 16610 is the in the 10k - 11k range, and a good condition 16710 is 14k - 15k. It's just nuts when I think that I bought my first Sub about 10 years ago for less than 3k (which included the service that the seller told me would be needed).

I have two five digit Explorer II's. It just doesn't make any sense to me to sell them right now, but I'm keeping my eyes on the market.

But my guess is that we won't see the prices come down on those, at least not significantly. They may slow or stagnate, but not come down. If I were just getting into watches now, Rolex wouldn't even be on the radar screen.

[Ryeguy]

I'm not certain purchasing a luxury good right now makes a lot of sense even above and beyond the Rolex supply restrictions. It seems we are at a crossroads of general supply restrictions raising prices and combined with our dollar weakening due to inflation.

To sell now is an interesting question. I guess the answer would depend upon whether I looked at it as an investment or as an object that brought be joy.

While I don't own a Rolex, I do own a boat on a slip. Boats are nearly as impossible to get as Rolex, and slips by me are simply not available (200+ person waiting list at my marina). I got unsolicited offers routinely last summer (some for crazy $$$) which never ever happened in the past.

I 'm keeping the boat because the profit I earned in selling the boat now would not replace the enjoyment I get out of using it. Plus, knowing what I know about the boat industry, even if I decided to get another boat with my new profits, I probably couldn't get one for a few years. Life is too short to lose a few summers of enjoyment for a few thousand $$$.

[ncstate1201]

Turquoise OP41's are now $35k grey. I think that tells you all you need to know.

Lol what...haven't looked... that is silly

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[ncstate1201]

Unless/until the Rolex/AP/PP supply chain loosens up and ADs and boutiques have stock to sell, I don't see the gray market prices on the new pieces going down at all.

What blows me away when it comes to Rolex are the prices on all of the five digit models (and even some older six digit models). Given the number out there, they're commanding prices that just seem way too high. A good condition 16610 is the in the 10k - 11k range, and a good condition 16710 is 14k - 15k. It's just nuts when I think that I bought my first Sub about 10 years ago for less than 3k (which included the service that the seller told me would be needed).

I have two five digit Explorer II's. It just doesn't make any sense to me to sell them right now, but I'm keeping my eyes on the market.

But my guess is that we won't see the prices come down on those, at least not significantly. They may slow or stagnate, but not come down. If I were just getting into watches now, Rolex wouldn't even be on the radar screen.

I kinda agree with this... to take the other side though a 16610 or even a 16600 seems like a value in today's market next to a brand new Rolex that is sold at a profit through a gray dealer... or even that turquoise op41 at 35k...



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[JBZ]

Unless/until the Rolex/AP/PP supply chain loosens up and ADs and boutiques have stock to sell, I don't see the gray market prices on the new pieces going down at all.

What blows me away when it comes to Rolex are the prices on all of the five digit models (and even some older six digit models). Given the number out there, they're commanding prices that just seem way too high. A good condition 16610 is the in the 10k - 11k range, and a good condition 16710 is 14k - 15k. It's just nuts when I think that I bought my first Sub about 10 years ago for less than 3k (which included the service that the seller told me would be needed).

I have two five digit Explorer II's. It just doesn't make any sense to me to sell them right now, but I'm keeping my eyes on the market.

But my guess is that we won't see the prices come down on those, at least not significantly. They may slow or stagnate, but not come down. If I were just getting into watches now, Rolex wouldn't even be on the radar screen.

I kinda agree with this... to take the other side though a 16610 or even a 16600 seems like a value in today's market next to a brand new Rolex that is sold at a profit through a gray dealer... or even that turquoise op41 at 35k...



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Absolutely. It's all relative. It's just hard for me to forget that five or six years ago I bought a pristine, complete set 16600 for $5,000.

[aztecknight]

Turquoise OP41's are now $35k grey. I think that tells you all you need to know.

Lol what...haven't looked... that is silly

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I'll let mine go for a cheap 32k if anyone wants it.

PXL_20211015_175443805.jpg

[JP Chestnut]

Unless/until the Rolex/AP/PP supply chain loosens up and ADs and boutiques have stock to sell, I don't see the gray market prices on the new pieces going down at all.

One of China's largest real-estate development firms is going through a slow motion self destruction that could trigger a worldwide financial meltdown: https://www.bbc.com/news/business-58579833

There is a whole lot of shit besides production numbers that could tank current prices. I'm sitting on a Paul Newman Daytona's worth of cash and modern luxury watches are the absolute last thing that I'm thinking about buying.

[hoppyjr]

Turquoise OP41's are now $35k grey. I think that tells you all you need to know.

I paid a pretty large premium for my OP41 blue, but could certainly make money if I let it go.

The turquoise OP seems cool and was the one I wanted, but the blue is absolutely gorgeous and much more versatile, so I’m glad it worked out as it did.

[JBZ]

Unless/until the Rolex/AP/PP supply chain loosens up and ADs and boutiques have stock to sell, I don't see the gray market prices on the new pieces going down at all.

One of China's largest real-estate development firms is going through a slow motion self destruction that could trigger a worldwide financial meltdown: https://www.bbc.com/news/business-58579833

There is a whole lot of shit besides production numbers that could tank current prices. I'm sitting on a Paul Newman Daytona's worth of cash and modern luxury watches are the absolute last thing that I'm thinking about buying.

That's fair - lots of crap could happen to the economy. Luxury goods are weird, though. They don't always follow economic trends. Rich people always seem to have enough money to spend on luxuries.

OTOH, they make for horrible investments IMHO, if for no other reason than no one ever intended them to be investments. My feeling is that if you happen to buy a watch that increases in value, be happy, but don't use that as an investment strategy. Not everyone agrees obviously, given the amount of hype surrounding certain pieces.

[logan2z]

At 2018 prices, I would be good to go to finally get that 15400 (now 15500) or something like it. Now in 2021-2? No f’in chance.

I was fortunate enough to buy my 15400 before the prices went absolutely insane, and it was expensive even at MSRP at that time.

It's a terrific watch and I have zero regrets about purchasing it, but there's no way I'd pay upwards of $40K for one. It is, after all, just a simple three-hand/date, stainless steel watch - albeit one that is iconic and nice looking (IMHO)

[ncstate1201]

At 2018 prices, I would be good to go to finally get that 15400 (now 15500) or something like it. Now in 2021-2? No f’in chance.

I was fortunate enough to buy my 15400 before the prices went absolutely insane, and it was expensive even at MSRP at that time.

It's a terrific watch and I have zero regrets about purchasing it, but there's no way I'd pay upwards of $40K for one. It is, after all, just a simple three-hand/date, stainless steel watch - albeit one that is iconic and nice looking (IMHO)

Yeah but now you have a watch that is worth that much. Does it change how often you wear it? Do you baby it?

I have gone through that before with various watches at different times in life. I had a mint blue snowflake I regret selling but at the time my kids were super young, watches seemed to cost less back then and I thought no way I would wear such a nice example around them. I have not hit 40k in value on any one watch, but I think I would have a hard time strapping that one on and wearing it.

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[logan2z]

At 2018 prices, I would be good to go to finally get that 15400 (now 15500) or something like it. Now in 2021-2? No f’in chance.

I was fortunate enough to buy my 15400 before the prices went absolutely insane, and it was expensive even at MSRP at that time.

It's a terrific watch and I have zero regrets about purchasing it, but there's no way I'd pay upwards of $40K for one. It is, after all, just a simple three-hand/date, stainless steel watch - albeit one that is iconic and nice looking (IMHO)

Yeah but now you have a watch that is worth that much. Does it change how often you wear it? Do you baby it?

Honestly, I babied it before it spiked in value Mostly because we have a very active, young dog that likes to jump on me and I'm concerned she'll damage it. But I'm pretty anal about these things in general anyway, so the price increase of the AP hasn't really changed my approach to wearing it.

[logan2z]

I read something that suggested the VC Overseas has started to increase in value as people look to brands other than Rolex, PP, and AP for their luxury watch fix. But if the Overseas hasn't yet seen the price increases of the Royal Oak and can actually be purchased from an AD by mere mortals, I'd seriously consider that as an alternative. Beautiful watches from one of The Big Three manufacturers.

[JP Chestnut]

I read something that suggested the VC Overseas has started to increase in value as people look to brands other than Rolex, PP, and AP for their luxury watch fix. But if the Overseas hasn't yet seen the price increases of the Royal Oak and can actually be purchased from an AD by mere mortals, I'd seriously consider that as an alternative. Beautiful watches from one of The Big Three manufacturers.

The new Lange sports watch is another alternative, but I think that one is super hard to get as well.

It’s an interesting watch:
https://www.alange-soehne.com/en/odysseus

[hoppyjr]

I read something that suggested the VC Overseas has started to increase in value as people look to brands other than Rolex, PP, and AP for their luxury watch fix. But if the Overseas hasn't yet seen the price increases of the Royal Oak and can actually be purchased from an AD by mere mortals, I'd seriously consider that as an alternative. Beautiful watches from one of The Big Three manufacturers.

I’ve always loved those.

[goaliechris]

VC is starting to take off. Their new, limited edition Everest is something I would sell a lot for, particularly the Dual Time. I like my chrono:




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[logan2z]

VC is starting to take off. Their new, limited edition Everest is something I would sell a lot for, particularly the Dual Time. I like my chrono:

That generation was very cool. I love the current generation chronos as well...

[ncstate1201]

I like them but too big lug to lug for me...particularly on bracelet. Guess I should be glad I can't pull that off.

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[dnslater]

OTOH, they make for horrible investments IMHO, if for no other reason than no one ever intended them to be investments. My feeling is that if you happen to buy a watch that increases in value, be happy, but don't use that as an investment strategy. Not everyone agrees obviously, given the amount of hype surrounding certain pieces.

This

From time to time you get lucky and a watch appreciates... but very rarely do they ever out perform investments into a nice index fund.... especially when you consider hidden costs like taxes, paypal fees, service fees, insurance and your wife's scorn.