House Prices...

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Re: House Prices...

Post by JBZ » Mon May 03, 2021 1:34 pm

unsub073 wrote:
Mon May 03, 2021 12:48 pm
JBZ wrote:
Fri Apr 30, 2021 12:13 pm
The market around here is crazy right now. People paying all cash and several thousand above asking while waiving all contingencies. We could probably make a ton if we sold our home right now, but then we too would have to pay all cash and several thousand above asking while waiving all contingencies for our new house.
The problem w/selling right now, is that you need to have a plan b,c,d and e to find a new place. I am sure we could sell for a profit right now but there is no way we can find anything in the area that we want that has everything we currently have.
Yeah, I agree. We love our town and our house has everything we need (except central air, but we could do that if we really wanted). So no real reason to try and sell right now if that means getting caught in the same crazy situation as all of the other buyers.
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Re: House Prices...

Post by River Rat » Mon May 03, 2021 5:32 pm

In Bozeman when some one builds a new housing track they had to have a few houses at a lower price for first time buyers with a certain lower income like a local. I guess the corporations that builds these housing tracks complained to our Republican Gov. so he signed a executive order so Cities can't make corporations builders do that so they can sell as high as thy want what ever the market will bear. My first home I bought a small Condo only 800 SQ FT I bought under a program like that you had to be a first time home buyer and not make a lot of money working for a city I was not making a lot of money I qualified easy funny thing is I could not afford to live in the city I worked for I could afford this condo a hour drive from the City I worked for. Only thing was you had to live there for 5 years before you could sell plus live there you could not rent it out. I stayed there for over 20 years before selling and moving to MT. But it's programs like that that help first time home buyers the place was 106.000 but 130,000 for others with out the first time buyers program but having it a little lower help get a loan more easy. Instead of taking them away for greed they should have more.

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Re: House Prices...

Post by HapaHapa » Mon May 03, 2021 6:33 pm

River Rat wrote:
Mon May 03, 2021 5:32 pm
In Bozeman when some one builds a new housing track they had to have a few houses at a lower price for first time buyers with a certain lower income like a local. I guess the corporations that builds these housing tracks complained to our Republican Gov. so he signed a executive order so Cities can't make corporations builders do that so they can sell as high as thy want what ever the market will bear. My first home I bought a small Condo only 800 SQ FT I bought under a program like that you had to be a first time home buyer and not make a lot of money working for a city I was not making a lot of money I qualified easy funny thing is I could not afford to live in the city I worked for I could afford this condo a hour drive from the City I worked for. Only thing was you had to live there for 5 years before you could sell plus live there you could not rent it out. I stayed there for over 20 years before selling and moving to MT. But it's programs like that that help first time home buyers the place was 106.000 but 130,000 for others with out the first time buyers program but having it a little lower help get a loan more easy. Instead of taking them away for greed they should have more.
That situation of not being able to afford to live within an hour of where you work has become a more common issue in the past few decades, one that is yet to be solved. At least not until the sandwich, burger and coffee joints all become fully automated (I’m guessing that’s not too far away) and those lower paying jobs cease to exist.
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Re: House Prices...

Post by BBK357 » Mon May 03, 2021 8:35 pm

hoppyjr wrote:
matt.wu wrote:
toxicavenger wrote:It is crazy here also. They have named this place CaliRADO. Most homes sell in one day and are usually 60k over asking. People are paying in cash. And our homeless population has has grown 400%.

We are super close to leaving this area.
Hahaha I know a lot of folks who’ve moved to CO recently. Calirado for sure.
Californians poor choices have caused the current “state of the state”, so they move to other states that aren’t a mess yet….but they take their ignorance of government and civics, so they help ruin other states.

Shameful.
^
Factual information right here.

If I was in CO, TX, AZ, NV I’d be pissed.
You guys voted for a shit show- don’t repeat it somewhere else.



Here in OH, what Craniotes described as a flyover state, prices have gotten some what competitive depending on the area. I’m very glad we moved into our home 3 years ago because it has shot up in value lately.
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Re: House Prices...

Post by matt.wu » Mon May 03, 2021 9:40 pm

It’s common to mix up correlation and causation when attempting to oversimplify.

Lots of bad in politics for sure, but changing populations and needs are more complex.

So cut the politics, eh? We were doing pretty good for awhile. If you want to be the old stick in the mid curmudgeon, that’s okay, but anecdote doesn’t make truth.
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Re: House Prices...

Post by BBK357 » Mon May 03, 2021 10:13 pm

matt.wu wrote:It’s common to mix up correlation and causation when attempting to oversimplify.

Lots of bad in politics for sure, but changing populations and needs are more complex.

So cut the politics, eh? We were doing pretty good for awhile. If you want to be the old stick in the mid curmudgeon, that’s okay, but anecdote doesn’t make truth.
California: very high living expenses and extreme house prices, bad living conditions, natural disasters, increased crime rate, super high taxes and a giant homeless encampment problem.
Causing people to leave in droves to other states, making other states housing prices to rise and be more competitive.
This all goes along with the topic of discussion.

It’s hard to find an explanation for these problems without talking about the P word.

At lease nobody said R or D.
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Re: House Prices...

Post by Marjak » Mon May 03, 2021 11:43 pm

@ Terry... 60k over asking prize...wow I wish here in Jakarta it was like that! I have a house for sale since 2015 and am going to put my house we currently living in up for sale also in a few months. We started yesterday with building a shipping-container home (4 x 40ft HQ containers) as we want to live a little smaller and in a much better and safer location. Can't wait for it to be ready!
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Re: House Prices...

Post by demer03 » Tue May 04, 2021 2:40 am

Marjak wrote:
Mon May 03, 2021 11:43 pm
@ Terry... 60k over asking prize...wow I wish here in Jakarta it was like that! I have a house for sale since 2015 and am going to put my house we currently living in up for sale also in a few months. We started yesterday with building a shipping-container home (4 x 40ft HQ containers) as we want to live a little smaller and in a much better and safer location. Can't wait for it to be ready!
Pictures pictures pictures, when the time comes. Now that the kids are out, this sounds like a fun downsize.
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Re: House Prices...

Post by Marjak » Tue May 04, 2021 3:45 am

demer03 wrote:
Tue May 04, 2021 2:40 am
Marjak wrote:
Mon May 03, 2021 11:43 pm
@ Terry... 60k over asking prize...wow I wish here in Jakarta it was like that! I have a house for sale since 2015 and am going to put my house we currently living in up for sale also in a few months. We started yesterday with building a shipping-container home (4 x 40ft HQ containers) as we want to live a little smaller and in a much better and safer location. Can't wait for it to be ready!
Pictures pictures pictures, when the time comes. Now that the kids are out, this sounds like a fun downsize.
Will do, Mike. Fun project indeed!
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Re: House Prices...

Post by Ryeguy » Tue May 04, 2021 4:08 am

Even though Matt probably still can’t find my state, we’re seeing the same rise in home prices.

We’ve always been relatively expensive due to having low taxes (no state income tax, no sales tax, low property tax rates in my town) and being a beach town, but local realtors are reporting similar stories - houses selling sight unseen for well over asking price. Seven figure sales are common. Are can’t find a rental property at all this summer. We are completely booked.

While politics might play a role, I think the bigger influence is the Covid pandemic. People are getting the heck out of cities and looking for more rural communities. Plus, with so many folks working remotely, you might as well live near the beach (or mountains, or ranch, etc.) instead of near the office. We are seeing a number of new kids in our local schools from Chicago, NYC, etc. It is a city exodus, not necessarily draining an entire state (i.e. people move here from Boston, not the Berkshires).

I think you are seeing a convergence of a large number of affluent buyers (those whose jobs are more flexible and able to be done remotely) all fighting for a limited number of available properties.

I knew a guy who made a killing 20 years ago by selling homes in VT to wealthy NYC folks who wanted an “escape plan” after 9/11.

FWIW, the affluent people in my town spent the winter in places like Costa Rica. I know two families who bought big sailboats and are cruising the Caribbean. If you’ve got the $$$, you’ve never had more flexibility with remote schools and remote jobs to live the life you’ve always wanted. As crazy as it seems to write this, the reality is the pandemic experience has been pretty good for some people.

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Re: House Prices...

Post by smalls » Tue May 04, 2021 4:53 am

Think we’re about to cash in and sell ours. Mother-in-law passed away in Jan. and left my wife (only child) her house. Plan to do some light reno work and enjoy not having a mortgage for a few years. Great time to be a seller. Buyer, not so much.

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Re: House Prices...

Post by dnslater » Tue May 04, 2021 4:58 am

BBK357 wrote:
Mon May 03, 2021 10:13 pm
matt.wu wrote:It’s common to mix up correlation and causation when attempting to oversimplify.

Lots of bad in politics for sure, but changing populations and needs are more complex.

So cut the politics, eh? We were doing pretty good for awhile. If you want to be the old stick in the mid curmudgeon, that’s okay, but anecdote doesn’t make truth.
California: very high living expenses and extreme house prices, bad living conditions, natural disasters, increased crime rate, super high taxes and a giant homeless encampment problem.
Causing people to leave in droves to other states, making other states housing prices to rise and be more competitive.
This all goes along with the topic of discussion.

It’s hard to find an explanation for these problems without talking about the P word.

At lease nobody said R or D.
As long as we are talking pure statistics and not the P word, California is middle of the pack being ranked 26th out of 50 states for % of persons living below the poverty line. Right next to my state of Indiana at 27. States with highest % of people below the poverty line include Mississippi, Louisiana, New Mexico, Kentucky and Arkansas. Crime statistics follow a similar trend with southeast states leading the pack as they follow poverty levels..... and again California is mid pack. Also, states receiving the most federal $$ tend to be those same Southeastern states. California has become a bit of an outlier for homeless rates due in part to the crazy home prices in large cities.... definitely an issue that they and other west coast states need to deal with.

When looking at taxes holistically including property, income, sales, etc, residents of states like Vermont, Hawaii, Maine, Minnesota, Connecticut and Rhode Island all pay more by % of income.

As far as natural disasters, California has their share, but Texas and Florida have received far more FEMA disaster relieve money the past 3 years. California is 3rd, followed by North Carolina, Georgia and Oklahoma.

This topic is complicated and there is a lot of nuance to different regional situations around the country. As Wu said, anecdotes don't help much.

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Re: House Prices...

Post by River Rat » Tue May 04, 2021 5:30 am

When some one pointed out California homeless they do have a lot. But every state has it even Montana we’re I live now see it every time I go to Bozeman panhandlers every were. Saw it in Hawaii tents in the parks talked to a police officer about it . He said if your homeless Hawaii the best place for it they panhandle in the mainland then buy a one way ticket to Hawaii. Cold or warm state every state deals with homelessness just look around your area and no different than California every state deals with homelessness. Who would think Montana. And I bet some members here have a friend or family member that is homeless or not far from being homeless. I remember after the navy I went to night school to get my high school deploma one of girls in class found a body in a park who was homeless beat in the head with a pipe she was talking about it in class. The girl called him the caveman it was one of my good friends brothers I knew him before he was homeless. So every one has to have known one before bad luck happen to them.

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Re: House Prices...

Post by JBZ » Tue May 04, 2021 6:20 am

Ryeguy wrote:
Tue May 04, 2021 4:08 am

While politics might play a role, I think the bigger influence is the Covid pandemic. People are getting the heck out of cities and looking for more rural communities. Plus, with so many folks working remotely, you might as well live near the beach (or mountains, or ranch, etc.) instead of near the office. We are seeing a number of new kids in our local schools from Chicago, NYC, etc. It is a city exodus, not necessarily draining an entire state (i.e. people move here from Boston, not the Berkshires).
Covid definitely seems to be the driver in CT, where we're not exactly known for our low taxes, but where we're seeing the same sort of residential real estate boon. People who can afford it are moving out of cities (primarily NYC in our case) and looking for nice suburbs where they can live and raise a family.

The funny thing is that before covid the trend was in the opposite direction. CT lost a couple of corporations that were housed in suburban office parks to Boston and NYC because the corporate trend was to move back into cities, and Hartford, New Haven, Bridgeport, and Stamford can't compete. I'll be curious to see what happens when we get "back to normal." :shrug:
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Re: House Prices...

Post by andrema » Tue May 04, 2021 7:12 am

JBZ wrote:
Fri Apr 30, 2021 12:13 pm
The market around here is crazy right now. People paying all cash and several thousand above asking while waiving all contingencies. We could probably make a ton if we sold our home right now, but then we too would have to pay all cash and several thousand above asking while waiving all contingencies for our new house.
Are they even waiving the crumbling foundation testing?
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Re: House Prices...

Post by BBK357 » Tue May 04, 2021 7:16 am

dnslater wrote:
BBK357 wrote:
Mon May 03, 2021 10:13 pm
matt.wu wrote:It’s common to mix up correlation and causation when attempting to oversimplify.

Lots of bad in politics for sure, but changing populations and needs are more complex.

So cut the politics, eh? We were doing pretty good for awhile. If you want to be the old stick in the mid curmudgeon, that’s okay, but anecdote doesn’t make truth.
California: very high living expenses and extreme house prices, bad living conditions, natural disasters, increased crime rate, super high taxes and a giant homeless encampment problem.
Causing people to leave in droves to other states, making other states housing prices to rise and be more competitive.
This all goes along with the topic of discussion.

It’s hard to find an explanation for these problems without talking about the P word.

At lease nobody said R or D.
As long as we are talking pure statistics and not the P word, California is middle of the pack being ranked 26th out of 50 states for % of persons living below the poverty line. Right next to my state of Indiana at 27. States with highest % of people below the poverty line include Mississippi, Louisiana, New Mexico, Kentucky and Arkansas. Crime statistics follow a similar trend with southeast states leading the pack as they follow poverty levels..... and again California is mid pack. Also, states receiving the most federal $$ tend to be those same Southeastern states. California has become a bit of an outlier for homeless rates due in part to the crazy home prices in large cities.... definitely an issue that they and other west coast states need to deal with.
^^
How new are your statistics? Does that reflect what has happened in the past year?

If it is new information, I’d like to know where CA ranked just a few years ago and compare it. Maybe a quick shift is the cause- like a 10% difference in the wrong direction in a short amount of time?
I have a few friends and family in CA and none of them would dispute what I have said as it has come out of their mouths - cost of living, people moving out of state, homeless etc. It seems like a very recent problem that stats are not reflecting.
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Re: House Prices...

Post by JBZ » Tue May 04, 2021 7:38 am

andrema wrote:
Tue May 04, 2021 7:12 am
JBZ wrote:
Fri Apr 30, 2021 12:13 pm
The market around here is crazy right now. People paying all cash and several thousand above asking while waiving all contingencies. We could probably make a ton if we sold our home right now, but then we too would have to pay all cash and several thousand above asking while waiving all contingencies for our new house.
Are they even waiving the crumbling foundation testing?
That's a really good question. I don't know. Thankfully, we're not in a part of the State that was impacted, but what a mess. Have any homes in Manchester been impacted?
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Re: House Prices...

Post by dnslater » Tue May 04, 2021 7:45 am

BBK357 wrote:
Tue May 04, 2021 7:16 am
^^
How new are your statistics? Does that reflect what has happened in the past year?

If it is new information, I’d like to know where CA ranked just a few years ago and compare it. Maybe a quick shift is the cause- like a 10% difference in the wrong direction in a short amount of time?
I have a few friends and family in CA and none of them would dispute what I have said as it has come out of their mouths - cost of living, people moving out of state, homeless etc. It seems like a very recent problem that stats are not reflecting.
Most of what I grabbed were 2017-2020 stats/trends. Will definitely be interesting to look back in a few years on 2020/2021 trends. There are assumptions that the entire country will see a shift of people moving from large/dense city centers towards more decentralized environments due to the pandemic and shift towards remote working which might equalize housing prices a bit. This would be a potential reversal of trends over the past decades where people have gravitated towards cities due to jobs and the loss of the manufacturing sector in rural areas.
Last edited by dnslater on Tue May 04, 2021 7:47 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: House Prices...

Post by andrema » Tue May 04, 2021 7:46 am

Crumbling_Foundations_Affected_Towns_2019-08-12.jpg
134909494_1319436168390258_7427624017592080701_n.jpg
Homes in a big part of the NE part of the state were impacted, even Bloomfield per this State of CT map from 2018. There are even reports of it being in WH and beyond west of the river, plus in Western MA. Wherever JJ Mottes delivered, that is where it is happening...who knows where they ended up dumping into foundations from the mid 1980's through the early 2010's...
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Re: House Prices...

Post by andrema » Tue May 04, 2021 7:52 am

^^ We're in Tolland...in the belly of the beast. We bought 4 years ago. Luckily, the builder of our development did not use JJ Mottes and we have all of the receipts for the foundation pours. Other larger neighborhoods in the town have been hit hard though, with much of the homes impacted and need to be raised.

When we bought we were well aware of the issue because of my sister and our friend who is one of the heavy hitters in the state on the matter. We would not buy without knowing who poured the foundation, no exceptions. Anyone who didn't do that is looking at a $150K bill down the road, at least, for their stupidity.

So, for anyone waiving contingencies in CT, they are just playing with Fire. They should rent for a few years and wait this storm out.
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Re: House Prices...

Post by JBZ » Tue May 04, 2021 8:29 am

andrema wrote:
Tue May 04, 2021 7:52 am
^^ We're in Tolland...in the belly of the beast. We bought 4 years ago. Luckily, the builder of our development did not use JJ Mottes and we have all of the receipts for the foundation pours. Other larger neighborhoods in the town have been hit hard though, with much of the homes impacted and need to be raised.

When we bought we were well aware of the issue because of my sister and our friend who is one of the heavy hitters in the state on the matter. We would not buy without knowing who poured the foundation, no exceptions. Anyone who didn't do that is looking at a $150K bill down the road, at least, for their stupidity.

So, for anyone waiving contingencies in CT, they are just playing with Fire. They should rent for a few years and wait this storm out.
Agree generally on waiving contingencies. It's just asking for trouble.

I hadn't heard about it extending into WH, so that's interesting. We've lived in our house for almost 20 years and it was built in the early 1970s. Still the same foundation and no issues, so I think we're okay. The State has established a fund to assist people with the problem (since the insurance companies have refused to pay). The last I read is that they've helped quite a few homeowners, but funding has been spotty.
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Re: House Prices...

Post by andrema » Tue May 04, 2021 8:42 am

JBZ wrote:
Tue May 04, 2021 8:29 am
andrema wrote:
Tue May 04, 2021 7:52 am
^^ We're in Tolland...in the belly of the beast. We bought 4 years ago. Luckily, the builder of our development did not use JJ Mottes and we have all of the receipts for the foundation pours. Other larger neighborhoods in the town have been hit hard though, with much of the homes impacted and need to be raised.

When we bought we were well aware of the issue because of my sister and our friend who is one of the heavy hitters in the state on the matter. We would not buy without knowing who poured the foundation, no exceptions. Anyone who didn't do that is looking at a $150K bill down the road, at least, for their stupidity.

So, for anyone waiving contingencies in CT, they are just playing with Fire. They should rent for a few years and wait this storm out.
Agree generally on waiving contingencies. It's just asking for trouble.

I hadn't heard about it extending into WH, so that's interesting. We've lived in our house for almost 20 years and it was built in the early 1970s. Still the same foundation and no issues, so I think we're okay. The State has established a fund to assist people with the problem (since the insurance companies have refused to pay). The last I read is that they've helped quite a few homeowners, but funding has been spotty.
Back in the day, the State let the insurance carriers off the hook, unfortunately.
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Re: House Prices...

Post by BBK357 » Tue May 04, 2021 8:46 am

dnslater wrote:
BBK357 wrote:
Tue May 04, 2021 7:16 am
^^
How new are your statistics? Does that reflect what has happened in the past year?

If it is new information, I’d like to know where CA ranked just a few years ago and compare it. Maybe a quick shift is the cause- like a 10% difference in the wrong direction in a short amount of time?
I have a few friends and family in CA and none of them would dispute what I have said as it has come out of their mouths - cost of living, people moving out of state, homeless etc. It seems like a very recent problem that stats are not reflecting.
Most of what I grabbed were 2017-2020 stats/trends. Will definitely be interesting to look back in a few years on 2020/2021 trends. There are assumptions that the entire country will see a shift of people moving from large/dense city centers towards more decentralized environments due to the pandemic and shift towards remote working which might equalize housing prices a bit. This would be a potential reversal of trends over the past decades where people have gravitated towards cities due to jobs and the loss of the manufacturing sector in rural areas.
I agree- will be very interesting.

I travel almost 60mi one way to work and have been doing it for almost 15 years. I cannot tell you how many times co-workers have told me I’m crazy for not moving closer.
Fast forward to last summer, all I hear is people at my work who are moving outside of the city and building in rural areas.
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Re: House Prices...

Post by Ryeguy » Tue May 04, 2021 9:16 am

HapaHapa wrote:
Mon May 03, 2021 6:33 pm
River Rat wrote:
Mon May 03, 2021 5:32 pm
In Bozeman when some one builds a new housing track they had to have a few houses at a lower price for first time buyers with a certain lower income like a local. I guess the corporations that builds these housing tracks complained to our Republican Gov. so he signed a executive order so Cities can't make corporations builders do that so they can sell as high as thy want what ever the market will bear. My first home I bought a small Condo only 800 SQ FT I bought under a program like that you had to be a first time home buyer and not make a lot of money working for a city I was not making a lot of money I qualified easy funny thing is I could not afford to live in the city I worked for I could afford this condo a hour drive from the City I worked for. Only thing was you had to live there for 5 years before you could sell plus live there you could not rent it out. I stayed there for over 20 years before selling and moving to MT. But it's programs like that that help first time home buyers the place was 106.000 but 130,000 for others with out the first time buyers program but having it a little lower help get a loan more easy. Instead of taking them away for greed they should have more.
That situation of not being able to afford to live within an hour of where you work has become a more common issue in the past few decades, one that is yet to be solved. At least not until the sandwich, burger and coffee joints all become fully automated (I’m guessing that’s not too far away) and those lower paying jobs cease to exist.
This was exactly my point when I was speaking with friends about the potential of increasing the federal minimum wage. I assured them that there were likely dozens of companies just wringing their hands in excitement about the prospect of an increased minimum wage.

The reality is the only thing keeping (insert your minimum wage job here) manual is the cost of labor is currently less than the cost of automation. No business is altruistically hiring minimum / lower wage employees.

As soon as the cost of labor increases, I guarantee some clever company will produce some automation solution which allows you to run your McD's with 2 employees per shift instead of 10.

I've already gotten used to self checkout at Home Depot and other big box stores. I don't see it as a big step for the same to happen to chain coffee or fast food shops. If the process can be standardized, it can be automated.

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Re: House Prices...

Post by hoppyjr » Tue May 04, 2021 9:28 am

BBK357 wrote:
dnslater wrote:
BBK357 wrote:
Tue May 04, 2021 7:16 am
^^
How new are your statistics? Does that reflect what has happened in the past year?

If it is new information, I’d like to know where CA ranked just a few years ago and compare it. Maybe a quick shift is the cause- like a 10% difference in the wrong direction in a short amount of time?
I have a few friends and family in CA and none of them would dispute what I have said as it has come out of their mouths - cost of living, people moving out of state, homeless etc. It seems like a very recent problem that stats are not reflecting.
Most of what I grabbed were 2017-2020 stats/trends. Will definitely be interesting to look back in a few years on 2020/2021 trends. There are assumptions that the entire country will see a shift of people moving from large/dense city centers towards more decentralized environments due to the pandemic and shift towards remote working which might equalize housing prices a bit. This would be a potential reversal of trends over the past decades where people have gravitated towards cities due to jobs and the loss of the manufacturing sector in rural areas.
I agree- will be very interesting.

I travel almost 60mi one way to work and have been doing it for almost 15 years. I cannot tell you how many times co-workers have told me I’m crazy for not moving closer.
Fast forward to last summer, all I hear is people at my work who are moving outside of the city and building in rural areas.
Surely there must be a truck stop closer than 60 miles!

:lol:

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