State of the Market

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JBZ
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Re: State of the Market

Post by JBZ » Sat Jan 01, 2022 3:00 pm

dukerules wrote:
Sat Jan 01, 2022 2:38 pm
None of these modern Rolex watches seem to have actual, intrinsic value anywhere near MSRP. You can say that about all modern luxury watches, but it’s a hard pill to swallow when you consider what the MSRPs were just a few years ago. The fact that a Sub is now $10K just boggles my mind. Of course if you have one, they’re worth a lot more than MSRP on the secondary market, but that’s beside my point.
Putting aside the shortage issue, Rolex is now pricing themselves above the level that most people, even people with some savings looking for their first luxury watch can afford. The increase on SS models appears to be 10 - 11% across the board. A SS Daytona is now going for $14,500 msrp.

I guess Rolex is really ceding that entry level market to Tudor (maybe other than the OP).

I’m glad I have my Exp II’s and have no interest in selling them. But if I were looking for a luxury watch jumping off point today, I’d be looking at Omega without a doubt, even with their odd sizing.
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Re: State of the Market

Post by JP Chestnut » Sat Jan 01, 2022 3:01 pm

dukerules wrote:
Sat Jan 01, 2022 2:38 pm
None of these modern Rolex watches seem to have actual, intrinsic value anywhere near MSRP. You can say that about all modern luxury watches, but it’s a hard pill to swallow when you consider what the MSRPs were just a few years ago. The fact that a Sub is now $10K just boggles my mind. Of course if you have one, they’re worth a lot more than MSRP on the secondary market, but that’s beside my point.
We both remember when a five digit sub was $4500 MSRP. I think the new one is probably twice as good in some arguable way. I don’t think MSRP is any more ridiculous than it was 15 years ago.

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Re: State of the Market

Post by JBZ » Sat Jan 01, 2022 3:22 pm

JP Chestnut wrote:
Sat Jan 01, 2022 3:01 pm
dukerules wrote:
Sat Jan 01, 2022 2:38 pm
None of these modern Rolex watches seem to have actual, intrinsic value anywhere near MSRP. You can say that about all modern luxury watches, but it’s a hard pill to swallow when you consider what the MSRPs were just a few years ago. The fact that a Sub is now $10K just boggles my mind. Of course if you have one, they’re worth a lot more than MSRP on the secondary market, but that’s beside my point.
We both remember when a five digit sub was $4500 MSRP. I think the new one is probably twice as good in some arguable way. I don’t think MSRP is any more ridiculous than it was 15 years ago.
I don’t know. My first Rolex was a 36mm datejust that I bought in 1998 new at an AD. I paid $2,600 with the AD discount. It was definitely expensive at the time, but well within something I could afford.

The exact same model (true, with upgrades) is now going for $7,250. Of course, I wasn’t married with kids, so my economic situation is different now, but I wouldn’t even consider that watch today.
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Re: State of the Market

Post by JP Chestnut » Sat Jan 01, 2022 3:27 pm

JBZ wrote:
Sat Jan 01, 2022 3:22 pm
JP Chestnut wrote:
Sat Jan 01, 2022 3:01 pm
dukerules wrote:
Sat Jan 01, 2022 2:38 pm
None of these modern Rolex watches seem to have actual, intrinsic value anywhere near MSRP. You can say that about all modern luxury watches, but it’s a hard pill to swallow when you consider what the MSRPs were just a few years ago. The fact that a Sub is now $10K just boggles my mind. Of course if you have one, they’re worth a lot more than MSRP on the secondary market, but that’s beside my point.
We both remember when a five digit sub was $4500 MSRP. I think the new one is probably twice as good in some arguable way. I don’t think MSRP is any more ridiculous than it was 15 years ago.
I don’t know. My first Rolex was a 36mm datejust that I bought in 1998 new at an AD. I paid $2,600 with the AD discount. It was definitely expensive at the time, but well within something I could afford.

The exact same model (true, with upgrades) is now going for $7,250. Of course, I wasn’t married with kids, so my economic situation is different now, but I wouldn’t even consider that watch today.
Supposedly 2600 inflates to about 4500 now. The new bracelets and movements are much better than the old ones so 7000 seems fair to me.

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Re: State of the Market

Post by JP Chestnut » Sun Jan 02, 2022 5:11 am

Seppia wrote:
Sat Jan 01, 2022 10:47 pm
I 100% agree with Jacob.
You really have to do the inflation math before comparing prices, and then look at how they are made.
I personally prefer 100x the styling of most five digits VS today’s Rolex offerings, but in terms of build quality my wife’s 114200 is way better compared to my 14060m, 16570 and 114270 (especially the bracelets).
Hell, my BB58 looks better built in some details
And my calculation ignores the loss of value of the USD versus the Swiss Franc. It’s gone from 1.45 in 1998 to .94 last year.

Real, not imaginary Fed defined, inflation is crazy.

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Re: State of the Market

Post by JBZ » Sun Jan 02, 2022 7:50 am

Seppia wrote:
Sat Jan 01, 2022 10:47 pm
I 100% agree with Jacob.
You really have to do the inflation math before comparing prices, and then look at how they are made.
I personally prefer 100x the styling of most five digits VS today’s Rolex offerings, but in terms of build quality my wife’s 114200 is way better compared to my 14060m, 16570 and 114270 (especially the bracelets).
Hell, my BB58 looks better built in some details
Of course inflation and build quality are factors. But you say yourself that the build quality of your BB58 is better than older Rolex in some respects, but you can buy for a lot less than current Rolex. The BB58 price is roughly comparable to what a submariner date would have cost in 1998 (I remember pricing them when I bought my datejust).

So my point is that, even with inflation, Rolex is making the conscious decision to price themselves at a much higher end of the market than comparable brands, especially Omega. This has been going on for awhile, but a 10% price increase accelerates the trend.

That’s fine. They have every right to do it. They’ve decided to target a smaller, more exclusive market. It’s just not a market that I could play in anymore, so as much as I enjoy some of their designs, if I were starting from scratch today I’d be looking at other brands.
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Re: State of the Market

Post by gr8sw » Sun Jan 02, 2022 2:28 pm

I have to laugh when you guys fawn over Rolex... by doing things 'in-house' they've obviously cut their costs to a minimum, yet they continue to sell exclusivity and rarity, neither of which they really deliver... and their timekeeping is by no means any better than an ETA or Miyota... and when you talk tool watch, who's really diving in their $10k Sub or race car driving in their $15k Daytona?

I'm sure I'll get skewered, and I have owned several Rolex, but it all seems like one grand marketing scheme and hardly above board to consumers by any stretch on Rolex's part... YMMV and Happy New Year :cheers:
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Re: State of the Market

Post by JBZ » Sun Jan 02, 2022 2:58 pm

gr8sw wrote:
Sun Jan 02, 2022 2:28 pm
I have to laugh when you guys fawn over Rolex... by doing things 'in-house' they've obviously cut their costs to a minimum, yet they continue to sell exclusivity and rarity, neither of which they really deliver... and their timekeeping is by no means any better than an ETA or Miyota... and when you talk tool watch, who's really diving in their $10k Sub or race car driving in their $15k Daytona?

I'm sure I'll get skewered, and I have owned several Rolex, but it all seems like one grand marketing scheme and hardly above board to consumers by any stretch on Rolex's part... YMMV and Happy New Year :cheers:
I won’t skewer you, but I think Rolex movements are a clear cut above standard eta or miyota. Sure, initial timekeeping may he on par, but for how long? The great thing about Rolex movements is they’re incredibly durable and well built. Watchmakers love working on them because of how well they fit together and perform. I’ve owned several and only one movement had any issues, and they were easily corrected.

It really depends on what you want. JLC and Blamcoain produce movements with far better finishing, and a lot of their models can be had for less than Rolex. I don’t know if they equal Rolex in durability, though.

But I think Omega is now producing movements that are every bit as good as Rolex, along with similar case finishing. And comparable models can be had for a lot less.

But as I’ve always said, Rolex has one advantage. They’re Rolex. They’re the best know luxury brand in the world. So they can charge more and still make a profit.
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Re: State of the Market

Post by JP Chestnut » Sun Jan 02, 2022 3:28 pm

gr8sw wrote:
Sun Jan 02, 2022 2:28 pm
I have to laugh when you guys fawn over Rolex... by doing things 'in-house' they've obviously cut their costs to a minimum,
This is ridiculous. Sure, they cut out double marginalization but you can't seriously think that it's more cost effective to operate a foundry than it is to outsource that functionality. Omega outsources production to China. that "obviously cut their costs to a minimum".

gr8sw wrote:
Sun Jan 02, 2022 2:28 pm
and their timekeeping is by no means any better than an ETA or Miyota...
I have a Rolex, bought new in 2004 and worn heavily since. Time keeping is perfect. I also have top grade ETAs that are a decade newer and are in serious need of a service.

Like Rolex or not. It doesn't matter. But the idea that the movement in a Daytona isn't vastly superior to an ETA based chronograph is pure nonsense.

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Re: State of the Market

Post by Ryeguy » Mon Jan 03, 2022 10:29 am

JP Chestnut wrote:
Sun Jan 02, 2022 3:28 pm
gr8sw wrote:
Sun Jan 02, 2022 2:28 pm
I have to laugh when you guys fawn over Rolex... by doing things 'in-house' they've obviously cut their costs to a minimum,
This is ridiculous. Sure, they cut out double marginalization but you can't seriously think that it's more cost effective to operate a foundry than it is to outsource that functionality. Omega outsources production to China. that "obviously cut their costs to a minimum".

gr8sw wrote:
Sun Jan 02, 2022 2:28 pm
and their timekeeping is by no means any better than an ETA or Miyota...
I have a Rolex, bought new in 2004 and worn heavily since. Time keeping is perfect. I also have top grade ETAs that are a decade newer and are in serious need of a service.

Like Rolex or not. It doesn't matter. But the idea that the movement in a Daytona isn't vastly superior to an ETA based chronograph is pure nonsense.
While I don't own one, I am a Rolex fan and appreciate their dedication to quality.

That said, I think their price increase is 80% marketing generated (and kudos to them for this) and maybe 20% related to recouping internal investments for product development and manufacturing excellence.

Comparatively, if we looked at pure manufacturer investment relative to product price, I would think a Grand Seiko Spring Drive (which required significant R&D investment in 2004 to develop the movement and is reportedly hand assembled) is a much better value proposition from a "what am I getting for my dollar" perspective than a stainless steel sport Rolex.

Then again, looking at actual watches, I can buy a SBGA469 for $5K retail and maybe sell it a month later for what I paid (or potentially even take a little loss). If I can find a Rolex Datejust 41 1263000 for $7,650 retail, Watchrecon search results suggest I can flip it for a $3K profit.

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Re: State of the Market

Post by JP Chestnut » Mon Jan 03, 2022 11:55 am

Ryeguy wrote:
Mon Jan 03, 2022 10:29 am
JP Chestnut wrote:
Sun Jan 02, 2022 3:28 pm
gr8sw wrote:
Sun Jan 02, 2022 2:28 pm
I have to laugh when you guys fawn over Rolex... by doing things 'in-house' they've obviously cut their costs to a minimum,
This is ridiculous. Sure, they cut out double marginalization but you can't seriously think that it's more cost effective to operate a foundry than it is to outsource that functionality. Omega outsources production to China. that "obviously cut their costs to a minimum".

gr8sw wrote:
Sun Jan 02, 2022 2:28 pm
and their timekeeping is by no means any better than an ETA or Miyota...
I have a Rolex, bought new in 2004 and worn heavily since. Time keeping is perfect. I also have top grade ETAs that are a decade newer and are in serious need of a service.

Like Rolex or not. It doesn't matter. But the idea that the movement in a Daytona isn't vastly superior to an ETA based chronograph is pure nonsense.
That said, I think their price increase is 80% marketing generated (and kudos to them for this) and maybe 20% related to recouping internal investments for product development and manufacturing excellence.

Comparatively, if we looked at pure manufacturer investment relative to product price, I would think a Grand Seiko Spring Drive (which required significant R&D investment in 2004 to develop the movement and is reportedly hand assembled) is a much better value proposition from a "what am I getting for my dollar" perspective than a stainless steel sport Rolex.
I mostly agree with the caveat that every single luxury watch is a terrible value in every way possible. What we're all arguing is 10,000% overpriced versus 9,950% overpriced (e.g., it doesn't really matter).

As far as "value for dollar" I think the godawful Rolex YM2 is probably tops. That countdown timer with bezel adjustment is a horological marvel that Rolex definitely spent a ton to R&D and I'm sure they haven't sold many (since the watch it's housed in looks like shit). GS is a good call too though -- very nice and credibly vertically integrated just like Rolex. GS would have been the clear "best value" brand before they marched up market a couple years ago. Now I think it's debatable.

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Re: State of the Market

Post by JBZ » Mon Jan 03, 2022 12:21 pm

JP Chestnut wrote:
Mon Jan 03, 2022 11:55 am
Ryeguy wrote:
Mon Jan 03, 2022 10:29 am
JP Chestnut wrote:
Sun Jan 02, 2022 3:28 pm
gr8sw wrote:
Sun Jan 02, 2022 2:28 pm
I have to laugh when you guys fawn over Rolex... by doing things 'in-house' they've obviously cut their costs to a minimum,
This is ridiculous. Sure, they cut out double marginalization but you can't seriously think that it's more cost effective to operate a foundry than it is to outsource that functionality. Omega outsources production to China. that "obviously cut their costs to a minimum".

gr8sw wrote:
Sun Jan 02, 2022 2:28 pm
and their timekeeping is by no means any better than an ETA or Miyota...
I have a Rolex, bought new in 2004 and worn heavily since. Time keeping is perfect. I also have top grade ETAs that are a decade newer and are in serious need of a service.

Like Rolex or not. It doesn't matter. But the idea that the movement in a Daytona isn't vastly superior to an ETA based chronograph is pure nonsense.
That said, I think their price increase is 80% marketing generated (and kudos to them for this) and maybe 20% related to recouping internal investments for product development and manufacturing excellence.

Comparatively, if we looked at pure manufacturer investment relative to product price, I would think a Grand Seiko Spring Drive (which required significant R&D investment in 2004 to develop the movement and is reportedly hand assembled) is a much better value proposition from a "what am I getting for my dollar" perspective than a stainless steel sport Rolex.
I mostly agree with the caveat that every single luxury watch is a terrible value in every way possible. What we're all arguing is 10,000% overpriced versus 9,950% overpriced (e.g., it doesn't really matter).

As far as "value for dollar" I think the godawful Rolex YM2 is probably tops. That countdown timer with bezel adjustment is a horological marvel that Rolex definitely spent a ton to R&D and I'm sure they haven't sold many (since the watch it's housed in looks like shit). GS is a good call too though -- very nice and credibly vertically integrated just like Rolex. GS would have been the clear "best value" brand before they marched up market a couple years ago. Now I think it's debatable.
While the Daytona hype is over the top, I do think the 4130 movement is pretty impressive. A reliable column wheel, vertical clutch chronograph movement that can fit in a case that thin? Great R&D there. And the Skydweller may not be for everyone from an aesthetic standpoint, but the tech is really cool.

That’s not a knock on Grand Seiko or Omega for that matter. Both are doing really impressive things (though I think GS would be better served by a name change).
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Re: State of the Market

Post by ncstate1201 » Mon Jan 03, 2022 1:57 pm

JBZ wrote:
Mon Jan 03, 2022 12:21 pm
JP Chestnut wrote:
Mon Jan 03, 2022 11:55 am
Ryeguy wrote:
Mon Jan 03, 2022 10:29 am
JP Chestnut wrote:
Sun Jan 02, 2022 3:28 pm
gr8sw wrote:
Sun Jan 02, 2022 2:28 pm
I have to laugh when you guys fawn over Rolex... by doing things 'in-house' they've obviously cut their costs to a minimum,
This is ridiculous. Sure, they cut out double marginalization but you can't seriously think that it's more cost effective to operate a foundry than it is to outsource that functionality. Omega outsources production to China. that "obviously cut their costs to a minimum".

gr8sw wrote:
Sun Jan 02, 2022 2:28 pm
and their timekeeping is by no means any better than an ETA or Miyota...
I have a Rolex, bought new in 2004 and worn heavily since. Time keeping is perfect. I also have top grade ETAs that are a decade newer and are in serious need of a service.

Like Rolex or not. It doesn't matter. But the idea that the movement in a Daytona isn't vastly superior to an ETA based chronograph is pure nonsense.
That said, I think their price increase is 80% marketing generated (and kudos to them for this) and maybe 20% related to recouping internal investments for product development and manufacturing excellence.

Comparatively, if we looked at pure manufacturer investment relative to product price, I would think a Grand Seiko Spring Drive (which required significant R&D investment in 2004 to develop the movement and is reportedly hand assembled) is a much better value proposition from a "what am I getting for my dollar" perspective than a stainless steel sport Rolex.
I mostly agree with the caveat that every single luxury watch is a terrible value in every way possible. What we're all arguing is 10,000% overpriced versus 9,950% overpriced (e.g., it doesn't really matter).

As far as "value for dollar" I think the godawful Rolex YM2 is probably tops. That countdown timer with bezel adjustment is a horological marvel that Rolex definitely spent a ton to R&D and I'm sure they haven't sold many (since the watch it's housed in looks like shit). GS is a good call too though -- very nice and credibly vertically integrated just like Rolex. GS would have been the clear "best value" brand before they marched up market a couple years ago. Now I think it's debatable.
While the Daytona hype is over the top, I do think the 4130 movement is pretty impressive. A reliable column wheel, vertical clutch chronograph movement that can fit in a case that thin? Great R&D there. And the Skydweller may not be for everyone from an aesthetic standpoint, but the tech is really cool.

That’s not a knock on Grand Seiko or Omega for that matter. Both are doing really impressive things (though I think GS would be better served by a name change).

Totally agree with the name change... I am a Seiko and Rolex/Tudor fan... I have had some Grand Seikos and some low end Seikos with tons of wabi... but at the end of the day it did kind of bother me (not based on what others think) that I could wear my $150-200 watch that was beat to hell and then put on my much nicer Grand Seiko which may cost 20X as much (or more depending on the model) and end up with the same name on the dial...

At least when I put on a lower end Rolex (some may argue it is not a Rolex) at least it is a different name... Tudor... I also concede not all Tudors are lower end (take my vintage 7928)...

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Re: State of the Market

Post by dnslater » Mon Jan 03, 2022 3:44 pm

ncstate1201 wrote:
Mon Jan 03, 2022 1:57 pm
n put on my much nicer Grand Seiko which may cost 20X as much (or more depending on the model) and end up with the same name on the dial...
I thought it would bother me, but it doesn’t at all. Probably because nobody notices either way… and GS has 70 years of rich history beating the Swiss at their own game.

I actually had more of an issue wearing a watch with “Rolex” on the dial but I’m atypical.

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Re: State of the Market

Post by Ryeguy » Tue Jan 04, 2022 5:17 am

dnslater wrote:
Mon Jan 03, 2022 3:44 pm
ncstate1201 wrote:
Mon Jan 03, 2022 1:57 pm
n put on my much nicer Grand Seiko which may cost 20X as much (or more depending on the model) and end up with the same name on the dial...
I thought it would bother me, but it doesn’t at all. Probably because nobody notices either way… and GS has 70 years of rich history beating the Swiss at their own game.

I actually had more of an issue wearing a watch with “Rolex” on the dial but I’m atypical.
I don’t think you are atypical in this regard at all. Rolex has a highly cultivated brand image that people either want to be associated with or not.

Rolex has spent millions on marketing to implant the idea in the public that Rolex (whichever model) is a symbol of achievement and success. This is why people are willing to pay $10-15K for what is arguably a $5k watch. They aren’t buying the watch, they are buying the symbol.

Unfortunately, a lot of successful people are also assholes. Ergo, we have the negative side of the symbolism, that Rolex wearer’s are rich d-bags.

The negative symbolism certainly isn’t true (as many members here prove), but it’s out there. The same goes for BMW - are you an avid driver looking for the “ultimate driving machine” or a pompous recent MBA grad who drives like they own the road?

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Re: State of the Market

Post by goaliechris » Fri Jan 07, 2022 9:41 am

Found another crazy example. Patek 5698a, a great looking chrono with rubber strap. Around $42k retail.

It can be yours right now on Chrono24 for the low low price of $199k!

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Just insanity.


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Re: State of the Market

Post by JBZ » Fri Jan 07, 2022 10:14 am

^^^The Nautilus madness has driven up the prices on Aquanauts, too. The MSRP on the basic, SS, three hand Aquanaut is just over $21,000. Grey market list prices are $50,000 - $70,000 depending on age and condition (when you can even find them).

Personally, I prefer the Aqua to the Nautilus. Seen both IRL and the Aqua look really balanced on the wrist.

But the crazy thing is that you can get certain precious metal Pateks with complications for the same price (or even less).
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