Global slow down...

Come on in and introduce yourself!
General watch talk.
User avatar
Henryj
Bubblehead
Posts: 4062
Joined: Tue Dec 01, 2009 4:17 pm
Name: Abu Shanab
Location: Rossford, Oh.

Re: Global slow down...

Post by Henryj » Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:20 pm

streetracer101 wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:02 pm
matt.wu wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 7:56 pm
deepcdvr wrote:Sorry Matt! I thought I was staying away from politics

My apologies! :oops:
You were good. You and Rob got it back on track. :cheers:
:thumbsup:
deepcdvr wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 7:53 pm
Dr Birx today:” over 99% of mortality in Europe is from people over 50 with pre-existing conditions ... with the majority of the mortality afflicted having 3 or more of those conditions”

Also, most of the deaths were people 75 yrs old + ... by far.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... italy-says

Again, I think this will get down to math: “acceptable losses” - I don’t have an opinion one way or another (or at least won’t say it here) but this is a struggle between shutting down the country with millions of people literally going from good paying jobs to zero dollars coming in - vs a medical problem in certain areas of the country , albeit the most popular areas... again, I’m not supporting one course or another)
Yup. And that's why I think the president is screwed regardless of outcome. At some point, our society has to draw a line in the sand in what is acceptable. Unfortunately, this line will lead to thousands of deaths +/- thousands of families destroyed by financial losses.
I agree that he’s probably screwed. I’ll quote a friend, although he was in a different context. “Sometimes the choice is between some casualties and massive casualties.” People have a hard time with that math, they want a perfect outcome.
Live slow, die old, leave a thoroughly used up corpse.

aztecknight
Posts: 1991
Joined: Fri Nov 11, 2011 12:12 pm

Re: Global slow down...

Post by aztecknight » Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:38 pm

If there had been better preparation instead of denial early on, we might be in a better position to make a hard decision to open up for business. Hell, if we had executed better 3-4 weeks ago in regards to medical equipment, this decision would be easier. Alas it didn't happen and we are where we are. I worry about my elderly mother and in laws. If we do open up for business, I'll be locking them up and throwing away the key for the foreseeable future. Best case scenario, we develop some herd immunity after many die and the risks drop significantly.

User avatar
pacifichrono
Posts: 3854
Joined: Wed Dec 02, 2009 11:54 am
Name: Tom
Location: Sunny San Diego

Re: Global slow down...

Post by pacifichrono » Mon Mar 23, 2020 11:47 pm

Jeez, I take a short lunch break and you guys are 26 pages into a new topic already! Couple new faces but mostly the same crazy bastards! I’m gonna try really hard to walk the Wu Line and keep politics out of my comments.

Before Trump even mentioned his “cure worse than the problem” point earlier today, I was thinking about the same concept. At some point (I’m not sure exactly ‘where’), society might reach a tipping point where the long-term damage being done to the economy in terms of jobs, living conditions, careers, families, savings, etc. may actually outweigh the future health risks (and incremental deaths) society is likely to sustain by governments and businesses taking certain actions to re-start the economy, businesses, and jobs.

As I’m sitting here staring at my PC pondering all this at 11:45 p.m., I wonder if there should be something like a Presidential Task Force of the nation’s top economic, business, health, and government experts to evaluate this dilemma and recommend what certain actions be taken and at what stage(s).

I think Trump said (paraphrasing) the doctors would want everyone in isolation for the next two years. By the same token, many business people would like to see the “all clear” signal given in a couple weeks to avoid economic disaster and the huge toll of human suffering that would bring.

Correct me if I’m wrong, but I would compare this dilemma to that of influenza: every flu season 20,000 to 90,000 Americans die from influenza, despite widespread efforts to vaccinate the population. That is a LOT of deaths…and yet we don’t require self-isolation and the closing of businesses during winter months to reduce the transmission of flu viruses, and therefore deaths. Rather, society accepts these tens of thousands of annual virus deaths as the “norm.” It wouldn’t think about shutting down the economy to save, let’s say, 10,000 or 25,000 of those lives per year. The financial cost would be too great a price to pay.

Bingo! But where is the right balance point?
Regards from Sunny San Diego.............Tom
Image

User avatar
Seppia
Posts: 5501
Joined: Wed May 20, 2015 5:06 pm
Name: Andrea
Location: Italia

Re: Global slow down...

Post by Seppia » Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:26 am

matt.wu wrote:So I don’t understand why folks bitch about enforcing the “no politics” rule when certain “sides” are talking and then proceed to carry on themselves.

Wtf guys?
It’s amazing

User avatar
bedlam
Posts: 1378
Joined: Fri Dec 09, 2011 11:16 pm
Name: Carl
Location: Fremantle, Western Australia (GMT +8)

Re: Global slow down...

Post by bedlam » Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:59 am

pacifichrono wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 11:47 pm
...Correct me if I’m wrong, but I would compare this dilemma to that of influenza...
Consider yourself corrected.

SoCal C4S
Posts: 2389
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2010 2:05 am
Name: RJ

Re: Global slow down...

Post by SoCal C4S » Tue Mar 24, 2020 1:09 am

Wow. This thread really got off track...

User avatar
demer03
Current Forecast: Vintage Doxa
Posts: 17914
Joined: Fri Dec 04, 2009 2:41 pm
Name: Mike the Doxa Ho
Location: Lake Michigami

Re: Global slow down...

Post by demer03 » Tue Mar 24, 2020 2:42 am

pacifichrono wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 11:47 pm
Jeez, I take a short lunch break and you guys are 26 pages into a new topic already! Couple new faces but mostly the same crazy bastards! I’m gonna try really hard to walk the Wu Line and keep politics out of my comments.

Before Trump even mentioned his “cure worse than the problem” point earlier today, I was thinking about the same concept. At some point (I’m not sure exactly ‘where’), society might reach a tipping point where the long-term damage being done to the economy in terms of jobs, living conditions, careers, families, savings, etc. may actually outweigh the future health risks (and incremental deaths) society is likely to sustain by governments and businesses taking certain actions to re-start the economy, businesses, and jobs.

As I’m sitting here staring at my PC pondering all this at 11:45 p.m., I wonder if there should be something like a Presidential Task Force of the nation’s top economic, business, health, and government experts to evaluate this dilemma and recommend what certain actions be taken and at what stage(s).

I think Trump said (paraphrasing) the doctors would want everyone in isolation for the next two years. By the same token, many business people would like to see the “all clear” signal given in a couple weeks to avoid economic disaster and the huge toll of human suffering that would bring.

Correct me if I’m wrong, but I would compare this dilemma to that of influenza: every flu season 20,000 to 90,000 Americans die from influenza, despite widespread efforts to vaccinate the population. That is a LOT of deaths…and yet we don’t require self-isolation and the closing of businesses during winter months to reduce the transmission of flu viruses, and therefore deaths. Rather, society accepts these tens of thousands of annual virus deaths as the “norm.” It wouldn’t think about shutting down the economy to save, let’s say, 10,000 or 25,000 of those lives per year. The financial cost would be too great a price to pay.

Bingo! But where is the right balance point?
Tom, first of all....good to see you.

Second, agree completely. A difficult choice is coming.
Image

User avatar
Seppia
Posts: 5501
Joined: Wed May 20, 2015 5:06 pm
Name: Andrea
Location: Italia

Re: Global slow down...

Post by Seppia » Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:54 am

Can we shut this thread down?
The alternative is to let people freely express their opinions (which I’m more than fine with, but doesn’t seem to be ok for everybody).

JBZ
Mr. Tasseled Loafer
Posts: 10577
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:03 am
Name: Jeff

Re: Global slow down...

Post by JBZ » Tue Mar 24, 2020 6:06 am

I don't know. When the owner of the site comes along and says to stop posting about politics, and then the same person who's been the cause of much of the rancor on this thread continues to post about politics, maybe it's time for the thread to be locked. No one's going to change anyone's mind here, and it's just pissing everyone off.

There are lots of FB groups, reddit sites, and other places where you can argue politics if that's what you want. Matt made it pretty clear he doesn't want it here.
Image

User avatar
deepcdvr
Flipper Extraordinaire
Posts: 11460
Joined: Tue Dec 01, 2009 2:29 pm
Name: Paul

Re: Global slow down...

Post by deepcdvr » Tue Mar 24, 2020 6:36 am

pacifichrono wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 11:47 pm
Jeez, I take a short lunch break and you guys are 26 pages into a new topic already! Couple new faces but mostly the same crazy bastards! I’m gonna try really hard to walk the Wu Line and keep politics out of my comments.

Before Trump even mentioned his “cure worse than the problem” point earlier today, I was thinking about the same concept. At some point (I’m not sure exactly ‘where’), society might reach a tipping point where the long-term damage being done to the economy in terms of jobs, living conditions, careers, families, savings, etc. may actually outweigh the future health risks (and incremental deaths) society is likely to sustain by governments and businesses taking certain actions to re-start the economy, businesses, and jobs.

As I’m sitting here staring at my PC pondering all this at 11:45 p.m., I wonder if there should be something like a Presidential Task Force of the nation’s top economic, business, health, and government experts to evaluate this dilemma and recommend what certain actions be taken and at what stage(s).

I think Trump said (paraphrasing) the doctors would want everyone in isolation for the next two years. By the same token, many business people would like to see the “all clear” signal given in a couple weeks to avoid economic disaster and the huge toll of human suffering that would bring.

Correct me if I’m wrong, but I would compare this dilemma to that of influenza: every flu season 20,000 to 90,000 Americans die from influenza, despite widespread efforts to vaccinate the population. That is a LOT of deaths…and yet we don’t require self-isolation and the closing of businesses during winter months to reduce the transmission of flu viruses, and therefore deaths. Rather, society accepts these tens of thousands of annual virus deaths as the “norm.” It wouldn’t think about shutting down the economy to save, let’s say, 10,000 or 25,000 of those lives per year. The financial cost would be too great a price to pay.

Bingo! But where is the right balance point?
Good point

From this morning - these are cases per state per MILLION inhabitants, many millions of them who are this morning out of work. Do you think they would like to return to work in 46 states where they may have 30-40 people with the flu per MILLION inhabitants? Many of those states having record low unemployment rates just a few days ago...

I'm not saying I have an opinion one way or another - nor am I referencing "the Donald" - just saying we have a decision to make in the near future.



1920px-COVID-19_outbreak_USA_per_capita_cases_map_svg.png
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
VR/
Paul

NEVER SETTLE!

User avatar
aikiman44
Tiki Extraordinaire
Posts: 8345
Joined: Fri Dec 04, 2009 7:50 am
Name: J

Re: Global slow down...

Post by aikiman44 » Tue Mar 24, 2020 7:05 am

Keep in mind that as isolation diminishes, there is the danger of a new round of cases.
Asymptomatic people with the virus may increase the spread.
"We'd better synchronize our watches."

User avatar
JP Chestnut
Posts: 16566
Joined: Mon May 27, 2013 10:40 am
Name: Jacob
Location: Ithaca, NY USA

Re: Global slow down...

Post by JP Chestnut » Tue Mar 24, 2020 7:20 am

aikiman44 wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 7:05 am
Keep in mind that as isolation diminishes, there is the danger of a new round of cases.
Asymptomatic people with the virus may increase the spread.
I agree with you. I’d rather do this too long than too short. The economy is already a mess and it won’t be worth it if we go back to normal too quickly.

User avatar
Ryeguy
Posts: 4051
Joined: Fri Sep 09, 2011 1:03 pm
Name: Chris
Location: Rye

Re: Global slow down...

Post by Ryeguy » Tue Mar 24, 2020 7:27 am

aikiman44 wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 7:05 am
Keep in mind that as isolation diminishes, there is the danger of a new round of cases.
Asymptomatic people with the virus may increase the spread.
I just watched a news report on the South Korean policies in effect to deal with this.

They are doing a ton of testing (more than the US to be sure), but they are combining that testing with a tracking program using the GPS on the citizen's phone.

The report didn't get into significant detail, but it seems everyone is required to provide the government with their cell phone number. If you have a positive COVID-19 test result, you are required to quarantine yourself. Your GPS location and your credit card information will be tracked by the government to ensure you do not leave your self isolation. (I am assuming there are negative consequences if you do violate the self-quarantine order).

By leveraging the GPS on the phone, the government is also able to alert those around you that they may have been exposed to someone who has tested positive to COVID-19 as well.

While I strongly suspect a large part of the US population would not be willing to accept this type of governmental monitoring, I believe this is the only way we could get the US back and minimize potential human losses. You need both universal COVID-19 testing combined with the allowing the government the ability to track your whereabouts at all times.

User avatar
JP Chestnut
Posts: 16566
Joined: Mon May 27, 2013 10:40 am
Name: Jacob
Location: Ithaca, NY USA

Re: Global slow down...

Post by JP Chestnut » Tue Mar 24, 2020 7:31 am

Meanwhile over here my stupid bitch neighbor got sick, thought she had it, got tested and then while she was waiting for results she and her family were in and out of the house nonstop and her kids were all over everyone’s yards.

This was after the governor made two statements saying to stay the fuck inside.

Luckily she didn’t have it, but I’m still super pissed at her and I’ll never get over it.

User avatar
dnslater
Posts: 6030
Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2011 6:52 pm
Name: Nick
Location: Indiana, USA

Re: Global slow down...

Post by dnslater » Tue Mar 24, 2020 7:40 am

deepcdvr wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 6:36 am

Good point

From this morning - these are cases per state per MILLION inhabitants, many millions of them who are this morning out of work. Do you think they would like to return to work in 46 states where they may have 30-40 people with the flu per MILLION inhabitants? Many of those states having record low unemployment rates just a few days ago...

I'm not saying I have an opinion one way or another - nor am I referencing "the Donald" - just saying we have a decision to make in the near future.


1920px-COVID-19_outbreak_USA_per_capita_cases_map_svg.png
Keep in mind that this is NOT actual cases per state per million, but CONFIRMED cases per state per million. The country is in it's infancy in testing so our data is extremely flawed until more testing is done. Hopefully we will know more in a couple of weeks. I am a business owner who is feeling the hurt, and completely understand that there is a business decision to be made regarding the tipping point, we just need better data to make a more informed decision.

User avatar
HapaHapa
Posts: 8625
Joined: Mon May 19, 2014 9:57 pm
Name: Eric
Location: Redondo Beach, CA

Re: Global slow down...

Post by HapaHapa » Tue Mar 24, 2020 7:52 am

We can either cower and watch the economy crater, or live smartly (distancing, wash hands, etc.) and keep collecting a paycheck. I'd rather the latter but will have to accept fact that more will get sick. What to do, what to do.
The Hapa

User avatar
59yukon01
1.21 gigawatts?!
Posts: 8540
Joined: Mon Jan 19, 2015 8:49 am
Name: David
Location: Louisville, KY

Re: Global slow down...

Post by 59yukon01 » Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:29 am


demer03 wrote:
pacifichrono wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 11:47 pm
Jeez, I take a short lunch break and you guys are 26 pages into a new topic already! Couple new faces but mostly the same crazy bastards! I’m gonna try really hard to walk the Wu Line and keep politics out of my comments.

Before Trump even mentioned his “cure worse than the problem” point earlier today, I was thinking about the same concept. At some point (I’m not sure exactly ‘where’), society might reach a tipping point where the long-term damage being done to the economy in terms of jobs, living conditions, careers, families, savings, etc. may actually outweigh the future health risks (and incremental deaths) society is likely to sustain by governments and businesses taking certain actions to re-start the economy, businesses, and jobs.

As I’m sitting here staring at my PC pondering all this at 11:45 p.m., I wonder if there should be something like a Presidential Task Force of the nation’s top economic, business, health, and government experts to evaluate this dilemma and recommend what certain actions be taken and at what stage(s).

I think Trump said (paraphrasing) the doctors would want everyone in isolation for the next two years. By the same token, many business people would like to see the “all clear” signal given in a couple weeks to avoid economic disaster and the huge toll of human suffering that would bring.

Correct me if I’m wrong, but I would compare this dilemma to that of influenza: every flu season 20,000 to 90,000 Americans die from influenza, despite widespread efforts to vaccinate the population. That is a LOT of deaths…and yet we don’t require self-isolation and the closing of businesses during winter months to reduce the transmission of flu viruses, and therefore deaths. Rather, society accepts these tens of thousands of annual virus deaths as the “norm.” It wouldn’t think about shutting down the economy to save, let’s say, 10,000 or 25,000 of those lives per year. The financial cost would be too great a price to pay.

Bingo! But where is the right balance point?
Tom, first of all....good to see you.

Second, agree completely. A difficult choice is coming.
+1.... This has been my thoughts from the very beginning.

JBZ
Mr. Tasseled Loafer
Posts: 10577
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:03 am
Name: Jeff

Re: Global slow down...

Post by JBZ » Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:31 am

The problem with just re-opening for business is that it won't solve anything. We are in the middle of a pandemic. So simply telling everyone that businesses are open won't mean that the economy will get back to normal. Lots of people will still be reluctant to gather in groups at restaurants, events, on airplanes, etc. And, since the real decision regarding whether to shut things down has been left to the states, some states will relax their rules, and some won't.

Meanwhile, the promotion of such a policy means that more people WILL do those things, which means more people will get sick, which means a greater likelihood that the healthcare system gets overwhelmed, which means more deaths from Covid-19 and other maladies that require hospitalization or medical attention due to lack of resources.

So it would basically be the worst of both worlds. More dead people AND a shitty economy. Better to continue what we're doing - social distancing to flatten the curve, ramping up production of PPE (hopefully), researching/developing a vaccine and medications, and counting on Congress to pass a stimulus package to keep everyone afloat (which they seem close to right now, but we'll see).
Image

User avatar
JP Chestnut
Posts: 16566
Joined: Mon May 27, 2013 10:40 am
Name: Jacob
Location: Ithaca, NY USA

Re: Global slow down...

Post by JP Chestnut » Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:35 am

JBZ wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:31 am
The problem with just re-opening for business is that it won't solve anything. We are in the middle of a pandemic. So simply telling everyone that businesses are open won't mean that the economy will get back to normal. Lots of people will still be reluctant to gather in groups at restaurants, events, on airplanes, etc. And, since the real decision regarding whether to shut things down has been left to the states, some states will relax their rules, and some won't.

Meanwhile, the promotion of such a policy means that more people WILL do those things, which means more people will get sick, which means a greater likelihood that the healthcare system gets overwhelmed, which means more deaths from Covid-19 and other maladies that require hospitalization or medical attention due to lack of resources.

So it would basically be the worst of both worlds. More dead people AND a shitty economy. Better to continue what we're doing - social distancing to flatten the curve, ramping up production of PPE (hopefully), researching/developing a vaccine and medications, and counting on Congress to pass a stimulus package to keep everyone afloat (which they seem close to right now, but we'll see).
I totally agree with you. I'd MUCH rather the government dump massive amounts of money into the hands of people who are suffering than ease this up and make it all for nothing.

We have already shit all over the economy. Let's get something out of it at least.

JBZ
Mr. Tasseled Loafer
Posts: 10577
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:03 am
Name: Jeff

Re: Global slow down...

Post by JBZ » Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:47 am

JP Chestnut wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:35 am
JBZ wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:31 am
The problem with just re-opening for business is that it won't solve anything. We are in the middle of a pandemic. So simply telling everyone that businesses are open won't mean that the economy will get back to normal. Lots of people will still be reluctant to gather in groups at restaurants, events, on airplanes, etc. And, since the real decision regarding whether to shut things down has been left to the states, some states will relax their rules, and some won't.

Meanwhile, the promotion of such a policy means that more people WILL do those things, which means more people will get sick, which means a greater likelihood that the healthcare system gets overwhelmed, which means more deaths from Covid-19 and other maladies that require hospitalization or medical attention due to lack of resources.

So it would basically be the worst of both worlds. More dead people AND a shitty economy. Better to continue what we're doing - social distancing to flatten the curve, ramping up production of PPE (hopefully), researching/developing a vaccine and medications, and counting on Congress to pass a stimulus package to keep everyone afloat (which they seem close to right now, but we'll see).
I totally agree with you. I'd MUCH rather the government dump massive amounts of money into the hands of people who are suffering than ease this up and make it all for nothing.

We have already shit all over the economy. Let's get something out of it at least.
Ultimately, I think keeping everyone quarantined for 18 months is completely unreasonable. But what we're doing now should buy us time to ramp up testing and medical resources, which will allow us to engage in targeted quarantines/isolation and ease the strain on the healthcare system. That will probably allow people to get back to work even before a vaccine is developed.

And no one, regardless of political party, is entirely comfortable with a $2 trillion stimulus package that's getting put together this quickly. As a former boss once said, "that's something that can only get fucked up." But I don't see much of an alternative at this point. The feds have to stop the bleeding.
Image

User avatar
JP Chestnut
Posts: 16566
Joined: Mon May 27, 2013 10:40 am
Name: Jacob
Location: Ithaca, NY USA

Re: Global slow down...

Post by JP Chestnut » Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:52 am

JBZ wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:47 am
JP Chestnut wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:35 am
JBZ wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:31 am
The problem with just re-opening for business is that it won't solve anything. We are in the middle of a pandemic. So simply telling everyone that businesses are open won't mean that the economy will get back to normal. Lots of people will still be reluctant to gather in groups at restaurants, events, on airplanes, etc. And, since the real decision regarding whether to shut things down has been left to the states, some states will relax their rules, and some won't.

Meanwhile, the promotion of such a policy means that more people WILL do those things, which means more people will get sick, which means a greater likelihood that the healthcare system gets overwhelmed, which means more deaths from Covid-19 and other maladies that require hospitalization or medical attention due to lack of resources.

So it would basically be the worst of both worlds. More dead people AND a shitty economy. Better to continue what we're doing - social distancing to flatten the curve, ramping up production of PPE (hopefully), researching/developing a vaccine and medications, and counting on Congress to pass a stimulus package to keep everyone afloat (which they seem close to right now, but we'll see).
I totally agree with you. I'd MUCH rather the government dump massive amounts of money into the hands of people who are suffering than ease this up and make it all for nothing.

We have already shit all over the economy. Let's get something out of it at least.
Ultimately, I think keeping everyone quarantined for 18 months is completely unreasonable. But what we're doing now should buy us time to ramp up testing and medical resources, which will allow us to engage in targeted quarantines/isolation and ease the strain on the healthcare system. That will probably allow people to get back to work even before a vaccine is developed.

And no one, regardless of political party, is entirely comfortable with a $2 trillion stimulus package that's getting put together this quickly. As a former boss once said, "that's something that can only get fucked up." But I don't see much of an alternative at this point. The feds have to stop the bleeding.
You're right that 18 months isn't feasible. However, mid-may? We just need more time, testing, and information before we can make an informed choice on how to go forward.

aztecknight
Posts: 1991
Joined: Fri Nov 11, 2011 12:12 pm

Re: Global slow down...

Post by aztecknight » Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:05 am

JP Chestnut wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:52 am
JBZ wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:47 am
JP Chestnut wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:35 am
JBZ wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:31 am
The problem with just re-opening for business is that it won't solve anything. We are in the middle of a pandemic. So simply telling everyone that businesses are open won't mean that the economy will get back to normal. Lots of people will still be reluctant to gather in groups at restaurants, events, on airplanes, etc. And, since the real decision regarding whether to shut things down has been left to the states, some states will relax their rules, and some won't.

Meanwhile, the promotion of such a policy means that more people WILL do those things, which means more people will get sick, which means a greater likelihood that the healthcare system gets overwhelmed, which means more deaths from Covid-19 and other maladies that require hospitalization or medical attention due to lack of resources.

So it would basically be the worst of both worlds. More dead people AND a shitty economy. Better to continue what we're doing - social distancing to flatten the curve, ramping up production of PPE (hopefully), researching/developing a vaccine and medications, and counting on Congress to pass a stimulus package to keep everyone afloat (which they seem close to right now, but we'll see).
I totally agree with you. I'd MUCH rather the government dump massive amounts of money into the hands of people who are suffering than ease this up and make it all for nothing.

We have already shit all over the economy. Let's get something out of it at least.
Ultimately, I think keeping everyone quarantined for 18 months is completely unreasonable. But what we're doing now should buy us time to ramp up testing and medical resources, which will allow us to engage in targeted quarantines/isolation and ease the strain on the healthcare system. That will probably allow people to get back to work even before a vaccine is developed.

And no one, regardless of political party, is entirely comfortable with a $2 trillion stimulus package that's getting put together this quickly. As a former boss once said, "that's something that can only get fucked up." But I don't see much of an alternative at this point. The feds have to stop the bleeding.
You're right that 18 months isn't feasible. However, mid-may? We just need more time, testing, and information before we can make an informed choice on how to go forward.
I agree with both of you. Take this time to build a shit load of ventilators and PPE and some hospital space, then open everything up. The problem is we can't treat it, if the people have confidence we can treat it and not overwhelm the medical system, they'd be more likely to move on with their lives.

User avatar
demer03
Current Forecast: Vintage Doxa
Posts: 17914
Joined: Fri Dec 04, 2009 2:41 pm
Name: Mike the Doxa Ho
Location: Lake Michigami

Re: Global slow down...

Post by demer03 » Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:25 am

JP Chestnut wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:52 am
JBZ wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:47 am
JP Chestnut wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:35 am
JBZ wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:31 am
The problem with just re-opening for business is that it won't solve anything. We are in the middle of a pandemic. So simply telling everyone that businesses are open won't mean that the economy will get back to normal. Lots of people will still be reluctant to gather in groups at restaurants, events, on airplanes, etc. And, since the real decision regarding whether to shut things down has been left to the states, some states will relax their rules, and some won't.

Meanwhile, the promotion of such a policy means that more people WILL do those things, which means more people will get sick, which means a greater likelihood that the healthcare system gets overwhelmed, which means more deaths from Covid-19 and other maladies that require hospitalization or medical attention due to lack of resources.

So it would basically be the worst of both worlds. More dead people AND a shitty economy. Better to continue what we're doing - social distancing to flatten the curve, ramping up production of PPE (hopefully), researching/developing a vaccine and medications, and counting on Congress to pass a stimulus package to keep everyone afloat (which they seem close to right now, but we'll see).
I totally agree with you. I'd MUCH rather the government dump massive amounts of money into the hands of people who are suffering than ease this up and make it all for nothing.

We have already shit all over the economy. Let's get something out of it at least.
Ultimately, I think keeping everyone quarantined for 18 months is completely unreasonable. But what we're doing now should buy us time to ramp up testing and medical resources, which will allow us to engage in targeted quarantines/isolation and ease the strain on the healthcare system. That will probably allow people to get back to work even before a vaccine is developed.

And no one, regardless of political party, is entirely comfortable with a $2 trillion stimulus package that's getting put together this quickly. As a former boss once said, "that's something that can only get fucked up." But I don't see much of an alternative at this point. The feds have to stop the bleeding.
You're right that 18 months isn't feasible. However, mid-may? We just need more time, testing, and information before we can make an informed choice on how to go forward.
It’s finding the acceptable balance that people will argue and question for decades to come. I don’t envy the man or woman who has to make that call.
Image

User avatar
JP Chestnut
Posts: 16566
Joined: Mon May 27, 2013 10:40 am
Name: Jacob
Location: Ithaca, NY USA

Re: Global slow down...

Post by JP Chestnut » Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:27 am

demer03 wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:25 am
JP Chestnut wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:52 am
JBZ wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:47 am
JP Chestnut wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:35 am
JBZ wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:31 am
The problem with just re-opening for business is that it won't solve anything. We are in the middle of a pandemic. So simply telling everyone that businesses are open won't mean that the economy will get back to normal. Lots of people will still be reluctant to gather in groups at restaurants, events, on airplanes, etc. And, since the real decision regarding whether to shut things down has been left to the states, some states will relax their rules, and some won't.

Meanwhile, the promotion of such a policy means that more people WILL do those things, which means more people will get sick, which means a greater likelihood that the healthcare system gets overwhelmed, which means more deaths from Covid-19 and other maladies that require hospitalization or medical attention due to lack of resources.

So it would basically be the worst of both worlds. More dead people AND a shitty economy. Better to continue what we're doing - social distancing to flatten the curve, ramping up production of PPE (hopefully), researching/developing a vaccine and medications, and counting on Congress to pass a stimulus package to keep everyone afloat (which they seem close to right now, but we'll see).
I totally agree with you. I'd MUCH rather the government dump massive amounts of money into the hands of people who are suffering than ease this up and make it all for nothing.

We have already shit all over the economy. Let's get something out of it at least.
Ultimately, I think keeping everyone quarantined for 18 months is completely unreasonable. But what we're doing now should buy us time to ramp up testing and medical resources, which will allow us to engage in targeted quarantines/isolation and ease the strain on the healthcare system. That will probably allow people to get back to work even before a vaccine is developed.

And no one, regardless of political party, is entirely comfortable with a $2 trillion stimulus package that's getting put together this quickly. As a former boss once said, "that's something that can only get fucked up." But I don't see much of an alternative at this point. The feds have to stop the bleeding.
You're right that 18 months isn't feasible. However, mid-may? We just need more time, testing, and information before we can make an informed choice on how to go forward.
It’s finding the acceptable balance that people will argue and question for decades to come. I don’t envy the man or woman who has to make that call.
That's true. No matter what choice is made, or by whom, a decent number of people are going to be pissed off - just like with most things political in nature.

User avatar
Ryeguy
Posts: 4051
Joined: Fri Sep 09, 2011 1:03 pm
Name: Chris
Location: Rye

Re: Global slow down...

Post by Ryeguy » Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:30 am

PPE - absolutely. Vents - maybe (we still have only so many care providers who can set up a ventilator).

The main thing at this point (at least in my mind) is the R&D needed to approve and then educate care providers on the best treatment protocols so we don't need all those extra ventilators.

I was very happy to hear NY was going to begin more broadly using that malaria drug / Z-pack combo to treat patients. I'm certain they will be capturing data on the recovery process for those patients.

If (and this is my sincerest hope) this malaria drug / Z-pack combo is able to keep the majority of patients out of the ICU and off ventilators, I think we will have the ability to open things up a bit.

Locked

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: 93 Turbo, Majestic-12 [Bot] and 76 guests