Global slow down...

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93 Turbo
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Global slow down...

Post by 93 Turbo » Sat Mar 07, 2020 11:00 pm

Now focus has turned from current Rolex SS sport's releases to toilet paper, is this the correction required to realign supply & demand and the crazy grey prices being realised?

I've been tracking a few a Tudor Pelagos watches on a sales forum here in AUS. A 2 liner listed for $3,000.00 AUS, just South of $2K US, & a Pelagos Blue Lesst than 3 months old at $5K AUS.

Ordinarily these would have sold in a few days, but there still available after a good week.

While these examples are not a true indication of any adjustment, it will be interesting to see how this plays out over the coming weeks/months.
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Re: Global slow down...

Post by hoppyjr » Sat Mar 07, 2020 11:37 pm

I have three cases of Costco toilet paper and 5 large bottles of hand sanitizer. I’m willing to trade all this bounty for a stainless Daytona. Would also consider an Explorer with cash my way.

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93 Turbo
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Re: Global slow down...

Post by 93 Turbo » Sun Mar 08, 2020 12:11 am

hoppyjr wrote:
Sat Mar 07, 2020 11:37 pm
I have three cases of Costco toilet paper and 5 large bottles of hand sanitizer. I’m willing to trade all this bounty for a stainless Daytona. Would also consider an Explorer with cash my way.
Careful mate I'd be holding onto that stuff...
Strength is = 2 or > than "tipping over a so- called smart car plastered in “Coexist” bumper stickers".

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Re: Global slow down...

Post by stonehead887 » Sun Mar 08, 2020 1:51 am

On a very cynical note, I do think the information about coronavirus is seriously overblown. As always it's about money and I cant help thinking this is about realigning global markets.

And of course if the new commodity is bog paper, I am happy to trade some of mine for a Rolex....at least that will last longer in water than toilet paper....

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Re: Global slow down...

Post by snootydog » Sun Mar 08, 2020 5:37 am

If I'm hauling a container with a high value load, I have a placard to hold up to any police car wanting to stop me saying I won't stop, any genuine police will recognise this card. I'm now thinking a container full of toilet rolls comes under the high value load category too :lol:
It's a crazy crazy world :boxing:
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Re: Global slow down...

Post by caesarmascetti » Sun Mar 08, 2020 8:32 am

The death rate will continue to drop and more and more cases are diagnosed with the testing kits. I would not at all be surprised when this is all said and down if they don't find that thousands have had with little or mild symptoms. IMO this is so much hype over nothing more than the FLU

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Re: Global slow down...

Post by caesarmascetti » Sun Mar 08, 2020 8:32 am

The death rate will continue to drop and more and more cases are diagnosed with the testing kits. I would not at all be surprised when this is all said and down if they don't find that thousands have had with little or mild symptoms. IMO this is so much hype over nothing more than the FLU

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Re: Global slow down...

Post by HapaHapa » Sun Mar 08, 2020 9:07 am

snootydog wrote:
Sun Mar 08, 2020 5:37 am
If I'm hauling a container with a high value load, I have a placard to hold up to any police car wanting to stop me saying I won't stop, any genuine police will recognise this card. I'm now thinking a container full of toilet rolls comes under the high value load category too :lol:
It's a crazy crazy world :boxing:
Do high value loads get shot by the top earning p$rn stars?
The Hapa

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Re: Global slow down...

Post by snootydog » Sun Mar 08, 2020 10:53 am

HapaHapa wrote:
Sun Mar 08, 2020 9:07 am
snootydog wrote:
Sun Mar 08, 2020 5:37 am
If I'm hauling a container with a high value load, I have a placard to hold up to any police car wanting to stop me saying I won't stop, any genuine police will recognise this card. I'm now thinking a container full of toilet rolls comes under the high value load category too :lol:
It's a crazy crazy world :boxing:
Do high value loads get shot by the top earning p$rn stars?
:roll: :roll:
Andy :uj:
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Re: Global slow down...

Post by 59yukon01 » Sun Mar 08, 2020 11:16 am

Of course this Coronavirus crap has been completely hyped, and no question more so because of it being an election year.

You never hear of this much panic over the flu, not even with these numbers below.

I'm beginning to think if gullibility/stupidity was a deadly disease half the people in the world would be dead already

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/pr ... ecfaa9.jpg[/IMG]Image

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Re: Global slow down...

Post by Selym » Sun Mar 08, 2020 11:27 am

caesarmascetti wrote:
Sun Mar 08, 2020 8:32 am
The death rate will continue to drop and more and more cases are diagnosed with the testing kits. I would not at all be surprised when this is all said and down if they don't find that thousands have had with little or mild symptoms. IMO this is so much hype over nothing more than the FLU
I hope you're right, but data suggests that this is more virulent than the flu, and lands more people in the ICU than flu. The real danger is running out of hospital beds.

Things don't look so good in China, South Korea, Iran, and Italy.
Last edited by Selym on Sun Mar 08, 2020 12:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Global slow down...

Post by matt.wu » Sun Mar 08, 2020 12:04 pm

Selym wrote:
caesarmascetti wrote:
Sun Mar 08, 2020 8:32 am
The death rate will continue to drop and more and more cases are diagnosed with the testing kits. I would not at all be surprised when this is all said and down if they don't find that thousands have had with little or mild symptoms. IMO this is so much hype over nothing more than the FLU
I hope you're right, but data suggests that this is more virulent than the flu, and lands more people in the ICU than flu. The real danger is running out of hospital beds.

Things don't look so good in China, South Korea, and Italy.
:1:

I do think it’s hyped up for sure, but it’s likely just as foolish to be dismissive.
:htfu:

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Re: Global slow down...

Post by caesarmascetti » Sun Mar 08, 2020 12:15 pm

matt.wu wrote:
Sun Mar 08, 2020 12:04 pm
Selym wrote:
caesarmascetti wrote:
Sun Mar 08, 2020 8:32 am
The death rate will continue to drop and more and more cases are diagnosed with the testing kits. I would not at all be surprised when this is all said and down if they don't find that thousands have had with little or mild symptoms. IMO this is so much hype over nothing more than the FLU
I hope you're right, but data suggests that this is more virulent than the flu, and lands more people in the ICU than flu. The real danger is running out of hospital beds.

Things don't look so good in China, South Korea, and Italy.
:1:

I do think it’s hyped up for sure, but it’s likely just as foolish to be dismissive.

Absolutely Matt, again like the flu, take precautions wash your hands avoid touching your eyes, if you have a compromised immune system, pulmonary disorders, are older and frail in general you must be very careful, but healthy individuals have very little to worry about.

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Re: Global slow down...

Post by caesarmascetti » Sun Mar 08, 2020 12:19 pm

Selym wrote:
Sun Mar 08, 2020 11:27 am
caesarmascetti wrote:
Sun Mar 08, 2020 8:32 am
The death rate will continue to drop and more and more cases are diagnosed with the testing kits. I would not at all be surprised when this is all said and down if they don't find that thousands have had with little or mild symptoms. IMO this is so much hype over nothing more than the FLU
I hope you're right, but data suggests that this is more virulent than the flu, and lands more people in the ICU than flu. The real danger is running out of hospital beds.

Things don't look so good in China, South Korea, and Italy.
The data is not complete as the testing has been only for those that have fallen ill. From what I've heard/read approx 80% will manifest very mild symptoms like a cold, or even be asymptomatic, again if there were a way to test I think you'd find thousands upon thousands of people have had it and mistook it for a cold or the flu.

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Re: Global slow down...

Post by Selym » Sun Mar 08, 2020 12:39 pm

caesarmascetti wrote:
Sun Mar 08, 2020 12:19 pm
Selym wrote:
Sun Mar 08, 2020 11:27 am
caesarmascetti wrote:
Sun Mar 08, 2020 8:32 am
The death rate will continue to drop and more and more cases are diagnosed with the testing kits. I would not at all be surprised when this is all said and down if they don't find that thousands have had with little or mild symptoms. IMO this is so much hype over nothing more than the FLU
I hope you're right, but data suggests that this is more virulent than the flu, and lands more people in the ICU than flu. The real danger is running out of hospital beds.

Things don't look so good in China, South Korea, and Italy.
The data is not complete as the testing has been only for those that have fallen ill. From what I've heard/read approx 80% will manifest very mild symptoms like a cold, or even be asymptomatic, again if there were a way to test I think you'd find thousands upon thousands of people have had it and mistook it for a cold or the flu.
I hear you, but they don't typically quarantine large parts of nations for the cold and flu. :shrug:

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Re: Global slow down...

Post by Seppia » Sun Mar 08, 2020 2:11 pm

same

Image

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Re: Global slow down...

Post by caesarmascetti » Sun Mar 08, 2020 2:39 pm

Selym wrote:
Sun Mar 08, 2020 12:39 pm
caesarmascetti wrote:
Sun Mar 08, 2020 12:19 pm
Selym wrote:
Sun Mar 08, 2020 11:27 am
caesarmascetti wrote:
Sun Mar 08, 2020 8:32 am
The death rate will continue to drop and more and more cases are diagnosed with the testing kits. I would not at all be surprised when this is all said and down if they don't find that thousands have had with little or mild symptoms. IMO this is so much hype over nothing more than the FLU
I hope you're right, but data suggests that this is more virulent than the flu, and lands more people in the ICU than flu. The real danger is running out of hospital beds.

Things don't look so good in China, South Korea, and Italy.
The data is not complete as the testing has been only for those that have fallen ill. From what I've heard/read approx 80% will manifest very mild symptoms like a cold, or even be asymptomatic, again if there were a way to test I think you'd find thousands upon thousands of people have had it and mistook it for a cold or the flu.
I hear you, but they don't typically quarantine large parts of nations for the cold and flu. :shrug:
Correct I would imagine if there was a vaccine for this like there is the flu, they wouldn't quarantine anyone

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Re: Global slow down...

Post by caesarmascetti » Sun Mar 08, 2020 2:46 pm

Seppia wrote:
Sun Mar 08, 2020 2:11 pm
same

Image

a few reasons why the numbers are sku'd and will come down:

1) Only people that manifested symptoms and mostly severe symptoms went to hospital or doctors. SO we have no way of knowing how many people actually contracted it and were very light symptoms like a cold, or were completely asymptomatic. We're told that the people that were actually subjected to tests that tested positive 80% of them had very light or were asymptomatic. So many thousands of cases could be out there we don't even know about because they were light or asymptomatic. This alone would lower the death rate significantly.

2) in the highest death rate brackets, how many of those people had underlying conditions, respiratory conditions other immuno disorders? In the US I believe all the deaths had underlying conditions or were frail and old. The graph does not relate this info

The death toll skews old even more strongly. Overall, China CDC found, 2.3% of confirmed cases died. But the fatality rate was 14.8% in people 80 or older, likely reflecting the presence of other diseases, a weaker immune system, or simply worse overall health. By contrast, the fatality rate was 1.3% in 50-somethings, 0.4% in 40-somethings, and 0.2% in people 10 to 39.
Last edited by caesarmascetti on Sun Mar 08, 2020 2:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Global slow down...

Post by JBZ » Sun Mar 08, 2020 2:49 pm

matt.wu wrote:
Sun Mar 08, 2020 12:04 pm
Selym wrote:
caesarmascetti wrote:
Sun Mar 08, 2020 8:32 am
The death rate will continue to drop and more and more cases are diagnosed with the testing kits. I would not at all be surprised when this is all said and down if they don't find that thousands have had with little or mild symptoms. IMO this is so much hype over nothing more than the FLU
I hope you're right, but data suggests that this is more virulent than the flu, and lands more people in the ICU than flu. The real danger is running out of hospital beds.

Things don't look so good in China, South Korea, and Italy.
:1:

I do think it’s hyped up for sure, but it’s likely just as foolish to be dismissive.
This. It’s not time to panic. This isn’t airborne Ebola. But it is time to be concerned. I worry about my parents and especially my FIL who’s in an assisted living facility. By all accounts, this thing can do a number on older people and people with compromised immune systems.
Image

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Re: Global slow down...

Post by caesarmascetti » Sun Mar 08, 2020 2:51 pm

JBZ wrote:
Sun Mar 08, 2020 2:49 pm
matt.wu wrote:
Sun Mar 08, 2020 12:04 pm
Selym wrote:
caesarmascetti wrote:
Sun Mar 08, 2020 8:32 am
The death rate will continue to drop and more and more cases are diagnosed with the testing kits. I would not at all be surprised when this is all said and down if they don't find that thousands have had with little or mild symptoms. IMO this is so much hype over nothing more than the FLU
I hope you're right, but data suggests that this is more virulent than the flu, and lands more people in the ICU than flu. The real danger is running out of hospital beds.

Things don't look so good in China, South Korea, and Italy.
:1:

I do think it’s hyped up for sure, but it’s likely just as foolish to be dismissive.
This. It’s not time to panic. This isn’t airborne Ebola. But it is time to be concerned. I worry about my parents and especially my FIL who’s in an assisted living facility. By all accounts, this thing can do a number on older people and people with compromised immune systems.
Yes elderly and people with other underlying health issue need to be very careful.

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Re: Global slow down...

Post by Seppia » Sun Mar 08, 2020 2:56 pm

caesarmascetti wrote:
Seppia wrote:
Sun Mar 08, 2020 2:11 pm
same

Image

a few reasons why the numbers are sku'd and will come down:

1) Only people that manifested symptoms and mostly severe symptoms went to hospital or doctors. SO we have no way of knowing how many people actually contracted it and were very light symptoms like a cold, or were completely asymptomatic. We're told that the people that were actually subjected to tests that tested positive 80% of them had very light or were asymptomatic. So many thousands of cases could be out there we don't even know about because they were light or asymptomatic. This alone would lower the death rate significantly.

2) in the highest death rate brackets, how many of those people had underlying conditions, respiratory conditions other immuno disorders? In the US I believe all the deaths had underlying conditions or were frail and old. The graph does not relate this info

The death toll skews old even more strongly. Overall, China CDC found, 2.3% of confirmed cases died. But the fatality rate was 14.8% in people 80 or older, likely reflecting the presence of other diseases, a weaker immune system, or simply worse overall health. By contrast, the fatality rate was 1.3% in 50-somethings, 0.4% in 40-somethings, and 0.2% in people 10 to 39.
1 not true at all. South Korea and Italy, just to cite the most glaring examples, have been running widespread tests for a while now (unlike the USA that is somewhat in denial)

2 the graph I posted is an apples to apples comparison.
So while it’s not the Black Death, saying “it’s just like the flu” is clearly wrong.

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Re: Global slow down...

Post by dinexus » Sun Mar 08, 2020 3:07 pm

The graph doesn't also relate the information where a person's smoking habit/history was taken into account.

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Re: Global slow down...

Post by caesarmascetti » Sun Mar 08, 2020 3:10 pm

out of the total people that have died, how many were compromised with other health issues?

I think my point is still accurate, if you a healthy person with no underlying issues and are not elderly or frail you have very little to fear from this virus. If on the other hand you have other health conditions which have compromised your immune system or are old and frail you should be very careful. IMO the sheer panic we are seeing is just not justified. I will be interested in seeing how this evolves when we see the final analysis and numbers I still maintain the death rate will decline not increase as more cases are diagnosed especially among otherwise healthy people




"The death rate is likely to change further as more cases are confirmed, though experts predict that the percentage of deaths will decrease in the longer term since milder cases of COVID-19 are probably going undiagnosed." From the article below:

https://www.sciencealert.com/covid-19-s ... hould-drop

from the same article:

About 80 percent of COVID-19 cases are mild, the research showed, and experts think many mild cases haven't been reported because some people aren't going to the doctor or hospitals for treatment.

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Re: Global slow down...

Post by caesarmascetti » Sun Mar 08, 2020 3:27 pm

Seppia wrote:
Sun Mar 08, 2020 2:56 pm
caesarmascetti wrote:
Seppia wrote:
Sun Mar 08, 2020 2:11 pm
same

Image

a few reasons why the numbers are sku'd and will come down:

1) Only people that manifested symptoms and mostly severe symptoms went to hospital or doctors. SO we have no way of knowing how many people actually contracted it and were very light symptoms like a cold, or were completely asymptomatic. We're told that the people that were actually subjected to tests that tested positive 80% of them had very light or were asymptomatic. So many thousands of cases could be out there we don't even know about because they were light or asymptomatic. This alone would lower the death rate significantly.

2) in the highest death rate brackets, how many of those people had underlying conditions, respiratory conditions other immuno disorders? In the US I believe all the deaths had underlying conditions or were frail and old. The graph does not relate this info

The death toll skews old even more strongly. Overall, China CDC found, 2.3% of confirmed cases died. But the fatality rate was 14.8% in people 80 or older, likely reflecting the presence of other diseases, a weaker immune system, or simply worse overall health. By contrast, the fatality rate was 1.3% in 50-somethings, 0.4% in 40-somethings, and 0.2% in people 10 to 39.
1 not true at all. South Korea and Italy, just to cite the most glaring examples, have been running widespread tests for a while now (unlike the USA that is somewhat in denial)

2 the graph I posted is an apples to apples comparison.
So while it’s not the Black Death, saying “it’s just like the flu” is clearly wrong.
out of the total people that have died, how many were compromised with other health issues?

I think my point is still accurate, if you a healthy person with no underlying issues and are not elderly or frail you have very little to fear from this virus. If on the other hand you have other health conditions which have compromised your immune system or are old and frail you should be very careful. IMO the sheer panic we are seeing is just not justified. I will be interested in seeing how this evolves when we see the final analysis and numbers I still maintain the death rate will decline not increase as more cases are diagnosed especially among otherwise healthy people


"The death rate is likely to change further as more cases are confirmed, though experts predict that the percentage of deaths will decrease in the longer term since milder cases of COVID-19 are probably going undiagnosed." From the article below:

https://www.sciencealert.com/covid-19-s ... hould-drop

from the same article:

About 80 percent of COVID-19 cases are mild, the research showed, and experts think many mild cases haven't been reported because some people aren't going to the doctor or hospitals for treatment.

Also, the US acted in the end of Jan restricting travel from China https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/31/busi ... virus.html far before most nations did. While perhaps the testing kits were not issued as quickly as possible restricting travel from ground zero of the outbreak most likely helped prevent even more cases. Perhaps if more countries would have acted this quickly the spread would have been slower

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Re: Global slow down...

Post by JDC222 » Sun Mar 08, 2020 5:36 pm

hoppyjr wrote:
Sat Mar 07, 2020 11:37 pm
I have three cases of Costco toilet paper and 5 large bottles of hand sanitizer. I’m willing to trade all this bounty for a stainless Daytona. Would also consider an Explorer with cash my way.
Apparently much of the toilet paper being purchased here, Costco, Save-On etc is being shipped to China, by the purchasers. :shrug:
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