Shoulda kept it sealed...

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outtatime
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Shoulda kept it sealed...

Post by outtatime » Fri Nov 16, 2018 7:42 am

I bought a BNIB for $8350 last year.

https://davidsw.com/product/rolex-11660 ... i=67571782
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Abmw
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Re: Shoulda kept it sealed...

Post by Abmw » Fri Nov 16, 2018 7:55 am

That’s freaking nuts. Who is that desperate for that model to pay that type of mark up.
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outtatime
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Re: Shoulda kept it sealed...

Post by outtatime » Fri Nov 16, 2018 7:58 am

Abmw wrote:
Fri Nov 16, 2018 7:55 am
That’s freaking nuts. Who is that desperate for that model to pay that type of mark up.
I guarantee it won't last a couple of days...
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james80
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Re: Shoulda kept it sealed...

Post by james80 » Fri Nov 16, 2018 8:46 am

A friend and I were discussing alternate investment stratagies recently after I had told him it's quite likely his Hulk and Daytona are worth more than he paid for them (around 8 and 11K repespectivly both from ADs). The converstation was (and this is assuming you can find enough of them) if you had 500K to invest and bought subs, SDs, GMTs and Daytonas would your return be better than any other investment that needs no work and has little holding costs beyond a safe?

Would a Rolex fund out perform an S&P index fund?

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Ryeguy
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Re: Shoulda kept it sealed...

Post by Ryeguy » Fri Nov 16, 2018 8:50 am

Maybe, but you'd have to factor in the loses expected from sales mishaps. Selling one might be easy. Selling 20 would be a royal PITA.

Buying a modern watch as an investment always seemed foolish to me.

outtatime
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Re: Shoulda kept it sealed...

Post by outtatime » Fri Nov 16, 2018 8:50 am

james80 wrote:
Fri Nov 16, 2018 8:46 am
A friend and I were discussing alternate investment stratagies recently after I had told him it's quite likely his Hulk and Daytona are worth more than he paid for them (around 8 and 11K repespectivly both from ADs). The converstation was (and this is assuming you can find enough of them) if you had 500K to invest and bought subs, SDs, GMTs and Daytonas would your return be better than any other investment that needs no work and has little holding costs beyond a safe?

Would a Rolex fund out perform an S&P index fund?
Believe me, if I could margin trade SS Rolex right now, I would. Unfortunately, I don't have enough capital to comfortably dump into a big pile of watches to sit on for a year.
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JBZ
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Re: Shoulda kept it sealed...

Post by JBZ » Fri Nov 16, 2018 8:57 am

Time will tell whether this continues, particularly with modern Rolex. The 116600 might be an exception, regardless, given it's relatively short production run.

I wouldn't rate most watches as a good investment, but Rolex could be different (Patek, too, I guess, but I don't know a lot about them). They have generally appreciated as the years have gone by (even though I doubt what's been happening with them in the last 5 years or so will be sustained). OTOH, there are lots of collectibles that have gained value only to see the bottom fall out. Beanie Babies are a flash in the pan example, but it's also happened with classic cars.

Will these watches be worth more than they are now 20 or 30 years down the road? Who knows?
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outtatime
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Re: Shoulda kept it sealed...

Post by outtatime » Fri Nov 16, 2018 8:57 am

Ryeguy wrote:
Fri Nov 16, 2018 8:50 am
Maybe, but you'd have to factor in the loses expected from sales mishaps. Selling one might be easy. Selling 20 would be a royal PITA.

Buying a modern watch as an investment always seemed foolish to me.
It's foolish except when it's a ridiculous artificial fake bull market like right now. I paid retail for my Hulk in Febuary ($9250), I can easily sell it to a forum dealer for almost $11k. I paid less than retail for my SD4K and can get close to $11k as well.

As long as Rolex thinks they can keep people interested by making it impossible to actually buy their stuff, if you can pick these up for close to retail you should be good.But I don't know how long this can last, unless they start making truly "limited" editions.
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BBK357
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Re: Shoulda kept it sealed...

Post by BBK357 » Fri Nov 16, 2018 8:58 am

Image

Insane.


Not too long ago this price is more than a nice red liner.
DEATH FROM ABOVE
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james80
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Re: Shoulda kept it sealed...

Post by james80 » Fri Nov 16, 2018 9:05 am

What is MSRP on a Exp I? My AD will do 5% discount for a final price of US$5,937.50, I have no desire to buy one for an investment but based on what they are selling for gray market I think it's a smart buy and probably better than cash in the bank?

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Chocodove
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Re: Shoulda kept it sealed...

Post by Chocodove » Fri Nov 16, 2018 9:07 am

james80 wrote:
Fri Nov 16, 2018 9:05 am
What is MSRP on a Exp I? My AD will do 5% discount for a final price of US$5,937.50, I have no desire to buy one for an investment but based on what they are selling for gray market I think it's a smart buy and probably better than cash in the bank?
That's a good price. Retail is $6500+ and the forums dealers have them higher for BNIB.
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Re: Shoulda kept it sealed...

Post by JBZ » Fri Nov 16, 2018 9:10 am

Depends on the Rolex, too. A few years ago, vintage bubble backs appreciated quite a bit, but the bottom fell out when everyone decided they really didn't want to pay that much money for an old, small watch.
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hoppyjr
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Re: Shoulda kept it sealed...

Post by hoppyjr » Fri Nov 16, 2018 9:39 am

james80 wrote:What is MSRP on a Exp I? My AD will do 5% discount for a final price of US$5,937.50, I have no desire to buy one for an investment but based on what they are selling for gray market I think it's a smart buy and probably better than cash in the bank?
It can only increase in both cost and value.

I picked one up for $5750 new but my AD won’t do any deals now.

outtatime
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Re: Shoulda kept it sealed...

Post by outtatime » Fri Nov 16, 2018 9:52 am

hoppyjr wrote:
Fri Nov 16, 2018 9:39 am
james80 wrote:What is MSRP on a Exp I? My AD will do 5% discount for a final price of US$5,937.50, I have no desire to buy one for an investment but based on what they are selling for gray market I think it's a smart buy and probably better than cash in the bank?
It can only increase in both cost and value.

I picked one up for $5750 new but my AD won’t do any deals now.
It depends on how in-demand they are too. Personally, I don't care one bit for an Explorer I. Maybe some do. But it seems like the Submariner/Sea-dweller/GMT/Daytona are the real movers at the moment. But then again, I never look at Explorer I's so maybe I'm wrong.

If you can get ANY SS Sub/GMT at retail, it would be foolish not to.
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james80
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Re: Shoulda kept it sealed...

Post by james80 » Fri Nov 16, 2018 10:01 am

They had ND subs at $6792 but haven’t had stock for a while. I’m supposed to go on Thursday so will report back.

outtatime
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Re: Shoulda kept it sealed...

Post by outtatime » Fri Nov 16, 2018 10:02 am

james80 wrote:
Fri Nov 16, 2018 10:01 am
They had ND subs at $6792 but haven’t had stock for a while. I’m supposed to go on Thursday so will report back.
Yeah that would be a max-out the CC situation. :)
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dukerules
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Shoulda kept it sealed...

Post by dukerules » Fri Nov 16, 2018 10:37 am

Modern Rolex prices are a joke to me. I jumped off that bus, and I'm not getting back on it.

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rockmastermike
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Re: Shoulda kept it sealed...

Post by rockmastermike » Fri Nov 16, 2018 10:59 am

dukerules wrote:
Fri Nov 16, 2018 10:37 am
Modern Rolex prices are a joke to me. I jumped off that bus, and I'm not getting back on it.
Im with Rahul on this - unless a 5 digit sub counts as modern

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FireMonk3y
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Re: Shoulda kept it sealed...

Post by FireMonk3y » Fri Nov 16, 2018 11:14 am

I’ve been saving for a while now to get a 116600. Was hoping to get one as a retirement present (20 years in the fire service) to myself, but that dream is fading fast. I’m going to hold out until early January and see if prices will drop some after Christmas, but not holding my breath. Really blows to find out you still can’t afford one after saving years to get it.


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outtatime
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Re: Shoulda kept it sealed...

Post by outtatime » Fri Nov 16, 2018 11:16 am

FireMonk3y wrote:
Fri Nov 16, 2018 11:14 am
I’ve been saving for a while now to get a 116600. Was hoping to get one as a retirement present (20 years in the fire service) to myself, but that dream is fading fast. I’m going to hold out until early January and see if prices will drop some after Christmas, but not holding my breath. Really blows to find out you still can’t afford one after saving years to get it.


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Unless Rolex surprises anyone and suddenly floods the market with them on January 1st, I can't see secondary market value going anywhere but up for the foreseeable future.

I may be considering selling my 116600 at some point though...
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james80
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Re: Shoulda kept it sealed...

Post by james80 » Fri Nov 16, 2018 11:22 am

Let’s all take a moment to collectively regret not buying Hoppy’s 16600 last year.

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Re: Shoulda kept it sealed...

Post by JBZ » Fri Nov 16, 2018 11:46 am

james80 wrote:
Fri Nov 16, 2018 11:22 am
Let’s all take a moment to collectively regret not buying Hoppy’s 16600 last year.
4 or 5 years ago, I almost pulled the trigger on a mid-1990's 16710 for $3,800, but I decided the extra $1,000 I was going to have to put in on top of a trade was too much. :crybaby: :nutkick:
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outtatime
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Re: Shoulda kept it sealed...

Post by outtatime » Fri Nov 16, 2018 11:57 am

JBZ wrote:
Fri Nov 16, 2018 11:46 am
james80 wrote:
Fri Nov 16, 2018 11:22 am
Let’s all take a moment to collectively regret not buying Hoppy’s 16600 last year.
4 or 5 years ago, I almost pulled the trigger on a mid-1990's 16710 for $3,800, but I decided the extra $1,000 I was going to have to put in on top of a trade was too much. :crybaby: :nutkick:
I remember when I graduated college (in 2001)...was walking through a mall and one of the jewelers sold Rolex (those were the days). They had a bunch of Coke and Pepsi GMTs in their window, brand new, and either were going out of business or something because they were all on sale. I can't recall exactly how much but I'm going to say <$3000 for a brand new one. Could have had a dozen or more.

The first BNIB Rolex I bought in 2004 was a Submariner. $3975, no tax (out of state).
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dnslater
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Re: Shoulda kept it sealed...

Post by dnslater » Fri Nov 16, 2018 1:00 pm

outtatime wrote:
Fri Nov 16, 2018 11:57 am
JBZ wrote:
Fri Nov 16, 2018 11:46 am
james80 wrote:
Fri Nov 16, 2018 11:22 am
Let’s all take a moment to collectively regret not buying Hoppy’s 16600 last year.
4 or 5 years ago, I almost pulled the trigger on a mid-1990's 16710 for $3,800, but I decided the extra $1,000 I was going to have to put in on top of a trade was too much. :crybaby: :nutkick:
I remember when I graduated college (in 2001)...was walking through a mall and one of the jewelers sold Rolex (those were the days). They had a bunch of Coke and Pepsi GMTs in their window, brand new, and either were going out of business or something because they were all on sale. I can't recall exactly how much but I'm going to say <$3000 for a brand new one. Could have had a dozen or more.

The first BNIB Rolex I bought in 2004 was a Submariner. $3975, no tax (out of state).
Ironically if you would have put $3975 in an S&P 500 Index fund in January of 2004 you would have over $13000 today, so lets not get ahead of ourselves with watches as investments.

I laugh when people talk about mid 90's Supra's and the like being worth slightly more now than they were new as if they were investments.......... $40,000 on the market in 1995 would now be worth $340k. :shock:

Fun calculator BTW.
https://www.noelwhittaker.com.au/resour ... alculator/


When the world economy slows, the demand for Rolex watches will also slow and supply will catch up with demand.... all things are cyclical.

outtatime
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Re: Shoulda kept it sealed...

Post by outtatime » Fri Nov 16, 2018 1:33 pm

dnslater wrote:
Fri Nov 16, 2018 1:00 pm
outtatime wrote:
Fri Nov 16, 2018 11:57 am
JBZ wrote:
Fri Nov 16, 2018 11:46 am
james80 wrote:
Fri Nov 16, 2018 11:22 am
Let’s all take a moment to collectively regret not buying Hoppy’s 16600 last year.
4 or 5 years ago, I almost pulled the trigger on a mid-1990's 16710 for $3,800, but I decided the extra $1,000 I was going to have to put in on top of a trade was too much. :crybaby: :nutkick:
I remember when I graduated college (in 2001)...was walking through a mall and one of the jewelers sold Rolex (those were the days). They had a bunch of Coke and Pepsi GMTs in their window, brand new, and either were going out of business or something because they were all on sale. I can't recall exactly how much but I'm going to say <$3000 for a brand new one. Could have had a dozen or more.

The first BNIB Rolex I bought in 2004 was a Submariner. $3975, no tax (out of state).
Ironically if you would have put $3975 in an S&P 500 Index fund in January of 2004 you would have over $13000 today, so lets not get ahead of ourselves with watches as investments.

I laugh when people talk about mid 90's Supra's and the like being worth slightly more now than they were new as if they were investments.......... $40,000 on the market in 1995 would now be worth $340k. :shock:

Fun calculator BTW.
https://www.noelwhittaker.com.au/resour ... alculator/


When the world economy slows, the demand for Rolex watches will also slow and supply will catch up with demand.... all things are cyclical.
And if you bought $3950 worth of Bitcoin in 2011, it would be worth over $7 million today. So it's all relative and meaningless.
Current
Alpina Extreme Diver 300 | Benarus Ti47 | Breitling Avenger Seawolf | Eterna KonTiki Super 1973 | Hamilton Jazzmaster Viewmatic | Hamilton Pan Europ | IWC Aquatimer 2000 | Korsbek Oceaneer | Linde Werdelin The One 2.6 | Omega Seamaster 300 Spectre | Omega Seamaster 300 Titanium | Omega Seamaster 2531.80 | Omega Speedmaster Broad Arrow | Panerai 005 | Rolex Deepsea | Steinhart Nav-B 6497 | Steinhart Ocean Vintage Military | Stowa Seatime | Zenith El Primero Stratos

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